The COVID-19 variant identified in England last month may have an increased risk of causing death, although data are limited, according to one of the government’s scientific advisory groups, said ITV political editor Robert Peston on Twitter on Friday.
Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus variant that emerged in the UK may be more deadly, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
“In addition to spreading faster, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the south east – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” said Johnson.
“It is largely the impact of this new variant that means that the NHS is under such intense pressure.”
Although the new variant is more contagious, Britain’s leading health and science officials have said so far that there is no evidence that it is more lethal or causes more serious illness.
However, Peston said the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (Nervtag) concluded that “it may be a little more lethal than the existing strain”.
He quoted a statement from Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College and a member of the Nervtag, saying: “It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant will increase the risk of death, but there is still considerable uncertainty.”
No one was immediately available to comment on the matter from the UK Department of Health, which covers Nervtag.
The statement cited by Peston established a 1.3 times greater risk of death from the variant, but also pointed out that only certain types of tests could specify which variant of the virus a patient had contracted.
“The big caveat is that we only know which strain people were infected with in about 8% of deaths,” said Peston, citing Ferguson, also setting other limitations on the available data.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, told the BBC that the evidence on lethality “is not yet strong”.
He said: “I want to emphasize that there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get precise control over it, but it is obviously a concern that this has an increase in mortality, as well as an increase in transmissibility.”
The new variant appears to be about 30% more deadly.
For example, with 1,000 people aged 60 years infected with the old variant, 10 of them are expected to die. But that goes up to about 13 with the new variant.
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