UK warns more deadly tension makes lifting block more difficult

Photographer: Leon Neal / Getty Images

The UK’s new coronavirus strain could be more deadly than previously thought, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson, when he warned again that the country faces a long wait before it comes out of the blockade.

Speaking at a news conference on Friday in London, the prime minister said new evidence prompted the government to revise its initial view that the variant was more contagious, but not more dangerous. It could be 30% more deadly than the original strain – or more, a government analysis has found.

“In addition to spreading faster, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the south east – may be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” said Johnson in 10 Downing Street, flanked by its top medical advisers.

The government said that, on average, for 1,000 men in their 60s, 13 to 14 would die if they contracted the new variant, compared with 10 for the initial strain.

The prime minister’s warning comes at a time when Britain is fighting the highest death toll in Europe and struggling to recover from the economic wreckage of its deepest recession in more than 300 years.

There was one A glimpse of light for the UK in government data on Friday, suggesting that the second wave of the pandemic had passed its peak.

But Johnson and his scientific advisers have made it clear that rates of hospitalizations, deaths and infections remain too high and will not allow restrictions that closed deals to be lifted anytime soon.

More Surveillance

Added to this was the warning about the increased power of the new variant known as B.1.1.7, which was first identified in the UK last year and has since spread around the world.

Read more: Why new strains of virus are so worrying: QuickTake

Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, said the new strain was not only easier to transmit, but was also linked to higher death rates than previous variants in circulation in Britain.

“It is largely the impact of this new variant that means that the NHS is under such intense pressure,” said Johnson. “It is more important than ever that we all remain vigilant and follow the rules.” There are 38,562 Covid patients in hospitals, which is 78% more than during the first peak last April, he said.

Although an initial analysis by public health experts in England found that the variant was not linked to further hospitalizations or deaths, independent analyzes by outside experts have yielded consistent and worrying results, according to a government report.

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London found that mortality was 29% to 35% higher among those infected with the worry variant, or VOC, compared to those who carried the original strain of the virus. The University of Exeter concluded that the risk was 91% higher, while a repeated analysis by Public Health England found mortality 65% ​​higher.

“There is a realistic likelihood that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of death compared to infection with non-VOC viruses,” concluded the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group report. UK. “Should be noticed that the absolute risk of death from infection remains low. “

More data will be accumulated in the coming weeks – as deaths fall behind infections – which could make the analysis more robust, the group said.

Officials at the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sought to learn more about the situation, but have not yet seen the data or spoken to their UK counterparts, an agency spokesman said by email on Friday.

In other developments Friday:

• Johnson pledged to do “Whatever it takes” to support jobs if restrictions continue in the summer
• He warned that he may need to impose tougher border measures to keep mutant strains out of the UK
• Proposed employees paying people to stay home in an effort to encourage more compliance with self-isolation orders
• Suggested data lockdown is working and the pandemic may no longer be spreading exponentially in the UK
• Another 1,401 deaths have been reported in the past 24 hours, bringing the UK total to 95,981

The Prime Minister is under pressure from his own Conservative Party to establish his script lifting restrictions that hurt the economy last year.

He is pinning the government’s hopes on a strategy to immunize 15 million of the most vulnerable people by February 15 – and said again on Friday that the country is on track to meet that goal.

There is no evidence that vaccines implanted in Britain are less effective against the most deadly variant of the virus, Johnson said. But infection rates remain high, with an average of one in 35 people in London having the disease, and one in 55 in the country.

“We really can’t start considering unlocking until we are confident that the vaccination program is working,” said Johnson. “We need to be in a position where rates are not so high that one unlock will lead to another major recovery.”

– With the help of David Goodman, Michelle Fay Cortez and John Tozzi

(Updates with comments from the US CDC in the 15th paragraph)