The coronavirus variant first identified in the UK “may be associated with a higher degree of mortality” in infected patients, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Friday during a press conference in Downing Street.
“I must tell you this afternoon that we have been informed today that, in addition to spreading faster, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – may be associated to a higher degree of mortality, ”said Johnson.
The researchers are still analyzing the data and there is still a lot of uncertainty.
Patrick Vallance, the UK government’s chief scientific adviser, said it appears that the variant is more deadly when looking at the total population that is infected.
“If you caught someone aged 60 – a man aged 60 – the average risk is that, for 1,000 infected people, about 10 will die, unfortunately, from the virus. With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, about 13 or 14 people can die, “he said.
Vallance said the increased risk would affect all age groups.
This evidence comes from several groups in the UK who have found an increased risk of death for people infected with the variant compared to people infected with other forms of the coronavirus. In four analyzes cited by a government advisory group, these estimates ranged between 1.3 and 1.9 times more risk of death. At least one analysis among hospitalized patients did not.
The advisory group, known as NERVTAG, concluded that there is a “realistic possibility” that the variant is associated with an increased risk of death. However, the researchers said the absolute risk of death for an individual remains low, and more data will be needed to provide definitive evidence. For example, in some cases, the data came from less than 10% of all reported deaths.
Vallance pointed out that “there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to have precise control over them. But it is obviously worrying that this will result in an increase in mortality, as well as an increase in transmissibility, as it seems today.”
He noted that when it comes to patients hospitalized with Covid-19, there is no increased risk of mortality.
“When we look at hospital data, for patients who are hospitalized with the virus, the results for those with the original virus or the new variant look the same,” he said.
UK Prime Minister Johnson said that “both vaccines we are currently using remain effective against both the old and the new variant”.