Since the sensational guard Sharife Cooper became eligible on January 9, Auburn has become a much better team.
The Tigers are losing 2-2 in a difficult four-game period that includes wins in Georgia, against Kentucky and two losses against Alabama (four points) and Arkansas (one point).
South Carolina faced quarantine problems throughout the season, and coach Frank Martin has just returned from his second absence from COVID-19. Gamecocks are finally in full swing and enter their fourth conference game in desperate need of victory.
Who gets approval in this Saturday morning SEC clash?
The Matchup
Auburn has been a much more explosive team since Cooper arrived.
The dynamic point guard averages 22.5 points, 4.1 rebounds and 8.3 assists in more than 34 minutes per game, leading an attack by Auburn that is among the country’s leaders in 2 point efficiency.
Tigers occupy the 24th place overall, with an average of 56.4% of the team within the arc. However, there are three main areas that Auburn still struggles with, even with Cooper.
Tigers are still among the last places in the country in offensive spins per game. Tigers have an average of 17.2 per game, ranking 327th out of 340 First Division teams. Free throws also remain an issue, as Tigers are still 276th (66.3%) among all First Division teams.
Despite Cooper’s proficiency (76.3%), Auburn’s difficulties cost him a victory in Arkansas, when he reached 16 out of 24 (66%) in a 75-73 defeat.
Under Bruce Pearl, the Tigers were unsuccessful at Columbia. They are 0-3 away from home against South Carolina, losing an average of 13.7 points.
Gamecocks are finally putting together a complete list after several interruptions of COVID-19. Junior Keyshawn Bryant (13.4 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and sophomores TJ Moss (5.1 ppg, 5 out of 7 out of 3) and Trey Anderson (17 points in Missouri) lost substantial time as play- cast key.
South Carolina brings three defensive advantages to this confrontation with Auburn.
First, its pressure means an average of 16.6 turnovers per game, 34 the highest in the country.
Second, Gamecocks are the best rebound team in the SEC game, ranking first in percentage of offensive rebound in the conference and second in defensive rebound efficiency.
Finally, they protect the 3 points exceptionally well, allowing opponents to shoot only 30.7% deep. This should limit an Auburn team that generated more than 34% of the points behind the arc against opponents of the SEC.
The key to the Gamecocks attack is the explosive Bryant, who has averaged 22.5 points, 6.1 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game since returning from quarantine. He provided scoring support for AJ Lawson (16.6 ppg), who had a combined 77-point run against LSU, Texas A&M and Florida A&M last week.
Junior Justin Minaya (9.1 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 2.4 apg) is a box scoring stuffer, but the real thermometer for Gamecocks is the second year Jermaine Couisnard (11.6 ppg, 3.9 apg) , who scored just 11 points combined in his last two games (both defeats).
South Carolina has been strong as an underdog at home during Martin’s term in Columbia. Gamecocks are 62% ATS as underdogs and won big home victories over Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and the state of Mississippi last year.
The Tigers face a South Carolina team that holds the best adjusted defensive rating in conference games, even better than Tennessee. Gamecocks are 16th in the country in percentage of effective field goal allowed and 44th in defense of 2 points (45.7%).
Analysis and choice of bets
The public will see this line and look behind the Tigers, but I will go with South Carolina as the little favorite at home. Gamecocks are totally healthy and Martin’s team is always strong at home.
Auburn has been playing well, but his excessive laps will provide plenty of extra chances for a South Carolina team that will already have an advantage in the tables.
Watch the queue and see if the public offers the opportunity to catch Gamecocks like a little underdog.
To choose: South Carolina -1 (up to -1.5)