Even as US deaths from COVID-19 exceed 400,000 this week, some Americans dispute the accuracy of the death toll, claiming it is exaggerated.
The final figures have not yet been released, but preliminary figures show that 2020 is on its way to becoming the deadliest year in the history of the United States, with more than 3.2 million deaths in total – about 400,000 more than 2019. – a sharp increase that public health experts attribute to COVID 19 and is in line with deaths reported by the disease.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported 2,835,533 deaths in the United States in 2019. Before the pandemic, the models projected a slightly higher number, about 2.9 million deaths, for 2020, said Dr. Jeremy Faust , emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital.
It is no coincidence, he said, that the 400,000 excess deaths resemble the number of coronavirus deaths in the U.S., which reached 401,796 on Wednesday, according to data from Johns Hopkins.
“This is not a seasonal change or just a random bad year,” said Faust. “This is what every person who can correctly attest to these numbers can clearly see is a historic increase in excess mortality. If we add that to the number of deaths from coronavirus, it’s game, set, match. “
Excess deaths are defined as “the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and the expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods.”
The CDC predicts that the excess of deaths since February 1 may be between 350,000 and 469,000. Faust says that some models project that the number could be close to 430,000.
Researchers at Virginia Commonwealth University in Richmond estimate that the excess of deaths may be up to 50% higher than publicly reported.
Upon examining death certificates, they found that more than 150,000 deaths were officially attributed to COVID-19 from March to July, but determined that almost 75,000 additional deaths were indirectly caused by the pandemic, according to a study published in October in the journal reviewed by JAMA pairs.
With that logic, excess deaths could easily be over 500,000 or approach 600,000, said Dr. Steven Woolf, director emeritus at the Virginia Commonwealth University Society and Health Center in Richmond.
“This is based on where we are now and, unfortunately, we are seeing the numbers going up, so the concern is obviously that we will end up with more excess deaths than that,” he said.
Deaths from COVID-19, a disease caused by the coronavirus, are not the only cause of the increase in 2020, as the country also registered more overdoses, partly due to the isolation caused by the pandemic.
According to the CDC, there were more than 81,000 overdose deaths in the 12 months ending in May, marking the highest number of overdose deaths ever recorded in a year. Overdose data for the entire year 2020 is not yet available.
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Faust said the country continues to see a historic increase in excess deaths among the young adult population, specifically between 25 and 44 years old.
A CDC study found that deaths in this age group from all causes increased by 26.5% from January to October, the highest average percentage change across all age groups. Faust said, according to a model, the country saw 7,300 excess deaths in this population from August to late November.
“Which, again, tells us that the pandemic and its effects are not just limited to the elderly,” he said.
The Institute of Metrics and Health Assessment at the University of Washington School of Medicine predicted in October that the Trump administration’s pandemic approach could lead to 511,373 COVID-19 deaths on February 28.
Dr. Ali Mokdad, professor of health metric sciences at IHME and director of population health strategy at the University of Washington, said the coronavirus pandemic also led to an increase in smoking, drinking, domestic violence, mental health problems and delays in healthcare and more.
“All of these conditions contribute to health in the United States, which in many ways has hurt us,” he said. “And we haven’t seen the end of it.”
Follow Adrianna Rodriguez on Twitter: @AdriannaUSAT.
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This article was originally published in USA TODAY: COVID-19: Excessive deaths in the US in 2020 show the impact of the coronavirus pandemic