Chad Henne was the most unlikely of the NFL playoff heroes last week. The Kansas City Chiefs reserve quarterback had run for only 19 net yards since 2014. Still, in a critical third loss at the end of the game against the Cleveland Browns, Henne somehow fought for 13 of the 14 yards he needed to convert. So, in the middle of color commentator Tony Romo guaranteeing the world that watches football that Henne would simply try to remove the Browns’ handicap with a difficult count, Henne made an impeccable psychological move on the 4th and short to seal a trip to the AFC Championship Game.
The Chiefs are the current Super Bowl champions, the Super Bowl pre-season favorite (by Vegas odds and FiveThirtyEight predictions), the AFC number 1 and the current co-favorites to win Super Bowl LIV. But their season could have ended last week if they hadn’t been lucky.
The Chiefs were in trouble at the time when titleholder Patrick Mahomes was eliminated from the game with a suspected concussion. After all, Mahomes ‘greatness has been the driving force behind an offensive that ended in Football Outsiders’ first three offensive places, the Defense Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) for three consecutive seasons. As pre-game favorites, the Chiefs’ probability of victory on the ESPN model never dropped below 77.2 percent – but maintaining a 5-point lead with a reserve quarterback in an elimination game seemed like hanging on the edge of one. cliff.
That tight fight against the Browns looked like a high-risk version of their 17-14 rematch over the humble Atlanta Falcons in week 16. And their 3-point win over the New Orleans Saints the week before. The eventual 5-11 Denver Broncos led the Chiefs for much of their Week 13 bout, the Las Vegas Raiders made them sweat in Week 11 and they beat the Carolina Panthers by just 2 in Week 9.
Although the Chiefs finished 14-2, they did not feel as dominant as they did during last year’s 12-4 campaign. In fact, in the second half of his regular season, the Chiefs scored 7-1, despite beating his opponents by just 10 points. When you’re winning so many games for an average of 1.25 points, you’re in luck.
As Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight wrote in the middle of the season, measuring the difference in points through Pythagorean expectation is one of the best ways to judge how fortunate (or unhappy) a football team has been. At that point, the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers had won 2.3 games more than their points differential would have indicated, making them the fourth lucky 8-0 team since 1960. “When a team wins more than the formula says ‘should’ ”Paine wrote,“ this usually means that you have won an unusual number of games of chance, which may not be sustainable going forward ”.
Using the same method, how lucky were the Chiefs in the last eight games of the regular season? The luckiest:
Since the middle of the season, the Chiefs have been very lucky
NFL teams with the biggest gaps between actual and expected record (based on Pythagorean expectation *) in the last eight games of a season since 1978
| Points | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Score | Allowed | Pythag W. | Gap vs. Exp. |
| 2020 | Bosses | 7-1 | 220 | 210 | 4.2 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | Cowboys | 7-1 | 185 | 173 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 1989 | Lubricators | 5-3 | 154 | 214 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| 2008 | Dolphins | 7-1 | 174 | 154 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 2006 | Chargers | 8-0 | 244 | 169 | 5.6 | +2.4 |
| 1999 | Colts | 7-1 | 200 | 171 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 1994 | Giants | 6-2 | 127 | 133 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 1996 | Ounces | 6-2 | 174 | 182 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
| 2008 | Bengals | 4-3-1 | 100 | 147 | 2.3 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | Dolphins | 6-2 | 190 | 198 | 3.8 | +2.2 |
This year’s Chiefs surpassed the total Pythagorean victories in the last eight games in more than any other team since the NFL switched to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Of the 1,241 teams that played a full eight-game schedule in the second half, none was as lucky as the bosses.
In the middle of the race, the Chiefs were not as lucky as the Steelers – but with 1.3 more wins than expected, they exceeded their Pythagorean expectations more than all the other teams except five. After the luckiest stretch race of the modern era, they ended up as the third luckiest team to play a 16-game season:
The full season of the Chiefs was very lucky
NFL teams with the biggest gaps between actual and expected record (based on Pythagorean expectation *) in a regular season, since 1978
| Points | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Team | Record | Score | Allowed | Pythag W. | Gap vs. Exp. |
| 1992 | Colts | 9-7 | 216 | 302 | 5.0 | +4.0 |
| 2012 | Colts | 11-5 | 357 | 387 | 7.2 | +3.8 |
| 2020 | Bosses | 14-2 | 473 | 362 | 10.5 | +3.5 |
| 2004 | thieves | 15-1 | 372 | 251 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| 2019 | Packers | 13-3 | 376 | 313 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 2016 | Raiders | 12-4 | 416 | 385 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 2020 | Browns | 11-5 | 408 | 419 | 7.7 | +3.3 |
| 2009 | Colts | 14-2 | 416 | 307 | 10.8 | +3.2 |
| 1999 | Titans | 13-3 | 392 | 324 | 9.8 | +3.2 |
| 2011 | Packers | 15-1 | 560 | 359 | 11.9 | +3.1 |
Of course, Chiefs don’t only had lucky. Not only did they have the second most effective attack in the NFL by DVOA this regular season, but they were the second most consistent from week to week. They led the NFL in offensive yards and finished sixth in the offensive score.
The problem is on the other side of the ball.
At first glance, the Chiefs’ defense was not bad; they finished tied for 10th on allowed points and 16th on allowed yards. But they had the worst red zone defense in the NFL according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, allowing touchdowns on 76.6 percent of opposing drives that reached the red zone. The Chiefs finished 22nd in the defensive DVOA and 24th in the weighted DVOA – meaning they were less effective at the end of the season.
Chiefs coach Andy Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy seem to know this. Although their attack was tied with the fourth lowest number of attempts in the league, they ran more moves per race and gained more yards per unit than any other team. Despite their reputation as a high-scoring, high-performance attack built around Mahomes’ big arm, the Chiefs were tied for the third longest average possession time on impulse.
This explains the very high offensive DVOA paired with relatively close games and with low scores: The Chiefs use their consistency and skill in attack to keep their defense off the field. Of course, by allowing less favored opponents to stay close, they are also at risk of being defeated.
The Steelers fell back to Earth in the second half of the season; they lost four of the last five games of the regular season and were eliminated from the playoffs in the first round by the Browns. The Chiefs managed to avoid being bothered by the same Browns team – but they will probably need all of their skills and fortunate to repeat as AFC and Super Bowl champions.
Check out our latest NFL predictions.