The challenge for these groups to back off is not a lack of money, given that the Republican Party broke spending records in 2020, and in interviews with a dozen party strategists, some noted that fewer groups could carry a more coordinated message. But others said that there are an ever-decreasing number of institutions and centers of power that can speak directly to voters, help direct the Republican Party’s course and experiment with different strategies and messages to help it win again. Leading Republicans hope the Republican Party’s minority status will spur innovation and spawn new groups, but they start 2021 with fewer options than the last time the party faced the political desert.
“Looking at the 2010 cycle, there was a flood of external groups that came on the scene. This is simply not the case now. Fundraising, campaigning organizations and outside groups have evolved significantly, ”said Ken Spain, who served as a spokesman for the Congressional Republican National Committee in 2010, when Republicans took back the majority in the House. “As the tectonic plates changed within the Republican Party, the broader campaign apparatus has atrophied, and that includes some groups backing off or going entirely to the left.”
Brian O. Walsh, who led a pro-Trump super PAC in 2020 and coordinated the GOP’s foreign spending efforts for years, said that “consolidation isn’t necessarily a bad thing with less cooks in the kitchen.” But a disadvantage, he added, is that “the ecosystem has shrunk, [and] this means that the number of different, substantial and respected political brands, from the Kochs to the Chamber, are not out there carrying the message to you ”.
“There is no one else there now,” said a senior Republican strategist, who worked with the Republican Party’s campaign committees and asked to remain anonymous to discuss the matter frankly. The person added: “There is strength in numbers and we have fewer numbers of groups.”
Trump’s influence on the party – and his personality-driven political approach – naturally covered up some of the pieces that had been missing for several years. But Trump is making the White House less popular than ever and with the intraparty reckoning in his mind more than party building.
“When you are the ruling party, you become less innovative, more dependent on the status quo and with Trump in power, it happened with steroids,” said Spain.
Senate Leadership Fund President Steven Law said that while “fewer groups have been involved” in recent years, the “intensity and ferocity” of outside group activity has only “increased”. This is clearly seen in SLF’s independent expenses, reaching historic highs during the 2020 cycle.
“As other groups diminished, we worked hard to fill a void,” said Law.
It is also a “natural evolution and maturation” of the political landscape, said Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with the leadership of the Republican Party. “Ten years ago, it was the wild west,” he said. “Now, CLF has grown from a big spender to a big spender due to a very consistent and demonstrable success record.”
A smaller group of players is not the only thing that has changed in the ecosystem of conservative aligned groups. Small-value donors have grown in importance for both parties, making it easier to access a grassroots grant network. During the 2020 cycle, Republicans sought to reach Democrats in online fundraising, focusing on attracting supporters to WinRed, a fundraising platform that processed $ 2 billion in the last cycle, which is still far behind the fundraiser. of online funds from Democratic candidates.
Earlier this month, corporate and executive PACs expressed concern, with some suspending or interrupting their political donations after 147 Congressional Republicans voted against certifying the results of the Electoral College. (It is not yet clear how long these bans can last.) And mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, one of the Republican Party’s biggest sources of funding in recent years, died earlier this month.
Several Republicans compared this moment to the race for the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans, energized by Democrats in full control of Washington after President Barack Obama’s election in 2008, led to a new wave of megadonora and group activity. building tea party activism.
“I think you will see new activities on a variety of fronts – perhaps not the ones you have seen before – but in an organic response to what I think will be a very liberal and aggressive program promoted by the next government,” said Law, citing groups like Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion group, as a potential new power player. “Having more players involved is a good thing, and I hope that we will see more of that in a year when people are more naturally activated.”
In the early months of the Biden government, Republicans also said they were eager to take advantage of Democratic policies to stimulate donors and activism.
“We are all after Trumpers now and we need to find out what this universe is like,” said a Republican donor adviser and strategist. “The new ecosystem is going to be a competition of ideas for the GOP mega donors, and they all have to decide, what kind of ecosystem do you want?”
But for groups that were instrumental in Republican Party acquisitions in 2010 and 2014, it is less clear that it will be involved in shaping and helping the party in 2021. For example, the United States Chamber of Commerce has already been ranked in the top 10 higher external spending groups in the 2012 and 2014 elections, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, most supporting Republicans. But the House spent only $ 10.9 million in independent expenses in 2018 and $ 5.7 million in 2020, after endorsing a bipartisan slate of candidates in 2020.
The US Chamber of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.
Americans for Prosperity, the political and grassroots arm of the Koch network, has been actively involved in hundreds of state and federal campaigns through its vast local activist operation in 2020, but has been remarkably out of the presidential race. AFP CEO Emily Seidel wrote a memo in 2019 that stated that AFP would support the holders of any political party, including Democrats, “who lead the union”, while criticizing politicians who “value partisanship over the results of policies “. And in the second round of the Georgia Senate, AFP dropped 800,000 doors for Senator David Perdue, but not for Senator Kelly Loeffler, two Republicans who lost their candidacies in January.
In a November interview, billionaire Charles Koch said he “took George Washington’s farewell speech seriously, where he said, ‘Watch out for political parties,’” reported The Washington Post. And last week, the Koch network told POLITICO that it will “weigh” the actions of members of Congress that led to the insurrection on January 6, 2021, “in our assessment of future support”.
A person with knowledge of the Koch network, with anonymity to discuss the matter frankly, said that, as Trump “brought up the traditional working-class Democrats who voted for him, while sending some Republicans, especially suburb Republicans to the Democratic Party,” and “This change, this realignment, is also reflected in the world of external spending”, including for the Koch chain.
The NRA is also still involved in Republican Party politics, being able to access its large network of members to support candidates. But he is currently facing a series of internal problems, from a public break with his former president in 2019 to his declaration of bankruptcy in New York last week and the announcement that he would be reconstituted in Texas.
In the last cycle, Republicans and Trump campaign officials warned about the NRA, calling the group deeply diminished and fearful of its internal challenges – including an investigation by the New York State Attorney General’s office about its exemption status. taxes – would hamper your campaign efforts.
In 2020, the NRA fell among the top 20 foreign spenders, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, after maintaining membership in that group for several cycles. But the NRA spent $ 30 million on TV and digital ads, as well as recruiting volunteers in eight states. The group also spent $ 5 million on Georgia’s Senate elections, essential seats that Republicans failed to win in January 2021.
The NRA said that “money is an often ineffective measure of power in politics [and] what matters is the results, “and that” endorsed in dozens of competitive races across the country and 87 percent of our candidates won at the federal and state levels, “said Amy Hunter, an NRA spokeswoman, in a statement. “There are millions of new gun owners in America who will vote on their rights in 2022.”