California says vaccinating everyone over 65 can take four months

California recently said people aged 65 and over are eligible to receive vaccines against coronavirus. But taking two injections in everyone in this age group could take four to five months, state health officials said on Wednesday.

Given the current rate of vaccines arriving in the state – between 400,000 doses and 500,000 doses per week, in a good week – it will take about 20 to 22 weeks to vaccinate only the population aged 65 and over, state health official Dr. Erica Pan said during a state vaccine advisory committee meeting.

There are about 6.2 million Californians aged 65 and over, according to the committee. Herd immunity is believed to be achieved if at least 70% of people are vaccinated, so 4.34 million people in this group would need to be immunized. As the two vaccines currently available, from Pfizer and Moderna, require two doses, this means that 8.68 million doses would be needed to complete vaccination for this group only.

The state has received about 4 million doses to date. Vaccination started about four weeks ago, with frontline health professionals going first.

Pan said on Wednesday that most qualified nursing homes in California, which are part of the federal pharmacy program CVS and Walgreens, will complete vaccinations soon. Other long-term care facilities, such as assisted living centers, are scheduled to complete vaccination in mid-February.

The inconsistent and scarce supply of vaccines has been a major problem in launching the coronavirus vaccine. The states obtain their vaccine allocations from the federal government, and the state then allocates the doses to counties and healthcare providers.

The state expects to receive vaccines at the current rate of 400,000 to 500,000 doses per week for the next few weeks, although this could increase by 100,000 doses per week.

“It’s a very small amount for at least the next few weeks,” said Pan.

Pan said officials expect other vaccine manufacturers to apply for FDA authorization for emergency use soon, which would help increase the vaccine’s supply, but the earliest this should happen is March. Health officials also expect the Biden government to provide more clarity about the country’s vaccine supply.

Pan also said at the meeting on Wednesday that the state will soon issue a statement about the handful of people who had allergic reactions after receiving the Modern vaccine at a mass vaccination post in San Diego’s Petco Park last week. The state has recommended discontinuing the use of this 330,000 vaccine batch, and this has left many counties and health systems even shorter than they already were.