Did San Francisco reach its peak COVID?

“This trend is promising, but it is too early to be sure, so we simply cannot let our guard down,” said Colfax. “Our current number per 100,000 is much higher than our summer peak, when we peaked at just 15.4, but we are still better than California as a whole, where the average is 100.9 per 100,000.” (Note: according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rate per 100,000 in California was 90.3 on January 20).

The post-holiday increase in hospitalizations is starting to drop “just a little”, with the weekly change in the hospitalization rate falling by 1%, said Colfax.

“This rate of change is important because it reflects the demand placed on our hospitals for acute care and ICU beds to care for COVID-19 and other patients,” he noted. “Again, this is promising and promising news.”

With cases finally starting to decrease slightly and the distribution of vaccines increasing slowly, some may be wondering: Has San Francisco reached its peak?

“I think the answer is yes,” said UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford. “We saw the rate of positivity start to decrease. We saw the cases start to fall. We are seeing hospitalizations decreasing. We will start to see ICU admissions and then we will see deaths decrease. So I say yes, probably. I think we’re on the way down. “

Rutherford said this cautiously, noting that the numbers can easily rise if people stop wearing masks and distance themselves socially. “You have to be careful,” he warned. “You can jump back up.”

Health officials are in a race against time, not only because patients continue to get sick and die, but also because the virus turns into forms that can spread much more easily.

An L452R variant has been found in at least a dozen counties and has been identified in several major outbreaks in Santa Clara, San Francisco and Monterey counties.

Rutherford believes that the new variants are unlikely to cause a big increase in San Francisco if people use their facial coverings, don’t get together and follow public health guidelines.

“What causes outbreaks is that people do not wear masks and do not distance themselves socially and get involved in overcrowded situations,” he said. “If it is a strain or another, they all cause outbreaks. Some may transmit more than others, but at the end of the day it is all behavioral.”

UCSF infectious disease physician Dr. Peter Chin-Hong agrees that the numbers are dropping slightly, but he is hesitant to say that the SF has reached its highest peak; Chin-Hong is concerned about the L452R variant, which is increasingly being identified in cases.

“This rate of increase is making me worried that it will be the UK variant again,” said Chin-Hong. “It is becoming a bigger part of the genotype scene. This suggests that it is taking over COVID.”

He said he also fears that people will become less vigilant when following public health orders. “Just when it is heating up and the hope of the vaccine is there, I am worried that we can relax,” said Chin-Hong, noting that people will still need to wear masks after being vaccinated. “Until there is consistency in the numbers, I cannot say with certainty that we have reached the peak.”

Across California, infection indicators are “all showing trends in the right direction,” said State Secretary for Health and Human Services, Dr. Mark Ghaly. A sudden spike after Christmas and New Year was feared on top of the spike after Halloween and Thanksgiving that generated case levels and hospitalizations to record levels.

Just a few weeks ago, it was feared that some hospitals in Los Angeles and other hard-hit areas would need to start rationing care, as they ran out of load capacity due to filling regular beds.

But hospitalizations across the state fell 8.5% in 14 days, with the number of patients in intensive care also decreasing. Hospitals serving 3,500 new patients a day are now serving 2,500 to 2,900 daily admissions – still frighteningly high, but “a very significant reduction,” said Ghaly.

Statewide positivity for the virus dropped below 10% for the first time in weeks, and each infected individual is now infecting less than another person – a recipe for eventual decline in cases.

“These are shining rays of hope,” said Ghaly.

The deaths continue at a frightening rate, however. More than 6,700 people have died in the past two weeks. In Los Angeles County, so many people died that the air quality council temporarily changed its rules to allow for more cremations.

While all of these numbers are promising, the distribution of vaccines has been disappointing.

So far, 3.2 million doses have been sent to California and 1.5 million have been administered, said Ghaly. This exceeds Governor Gavin Newsom’s goal of getting 1 million additional shots in a 10-day period, but Ghaly couldn’t say whether the state met Newsom’s self-imposed deadline on Friday to do so, citing late reports. .

The delay in administering the remaining 1.7 million doses may be because some have not yet arrived in the state, and some have been reserved for those who need second doses or for mass vaccination sites, he said.

The SF public health department said it would likely run out of vaccine on Thursday, in part because the state gave up on administering a batch of injections of Moderna after several health professionals in San Diego had a negative reaction.

The county health department received 12,000 doses last week and expected the same amount this week, but received only 1,775.

“This unreliable source makes planning very difficult,” said Colfax.

Chin-Hong hopes that vaccine distribution will accelerate in the coming weeks, as President Joe Biden implements his vaccine plan to increase supplies.

“I think with a new government this will clarify the problems and maybe put some money into it,” he said. “You can’t do that overnight. Public health has been underfunded for many years. You can’t just shoot a movie without preparing the actors and sets and have everyone training. I think what this reflects is the lack of a centralized health care system. I think people were disappointed. I hope that everything will get better. “”

The Associated Press contributed to this story.