Despite a recent reported drop in some COVID-19 hospitalization metrics, an expert at Arizona State University is warning that the state may still see the peak of that increase.
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On Wednesday, the state’s coronavirus panel showed 4,663 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in Arizona. That number has generally been decreasing since it peaked on January 11, at 5,082. ICU patients also saw a slight decline over the same period.
“These numbers fluctuate from day to day,” said Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of the ASU Biodesign Institute. “I would not interpret much here and there a little. There will be fluctuations on a daily basis and I am not convinced that we are really seeing a reliable reduction in ICU use or in hospitalization yet.”
LaBaer said his forecasting models pointed to late January or early February as a key moment for this increase.
“So far, the numbers are in line with our model,” he said. “[It] predicted that somewhere in late January and early February, I wouldn’t call it the peak, but I could call it the beginning of a plateau. “
With 11,528 COVID-19 deaths in Arizona, and counting, Dr. LaBaer said he could overcome cancer and heart disease as the leading cause of death in a 12-month period. He said this is responsible for about 12,000 deaths each year.
In fact, according to information from the Arizona Department of Health Services, heart disease was the leading cause of death in Arizona in 2017, accounting for 12,285 deaths.
“Please remember that although the vaccine has reached thousands of arms, the number of vaccines that came out has no impact, no appreciable impact, on the spread of the virus,” said Dr. LaBaer. “It will take many, many more vaccinations before we start to see an appreciable reduction in the spread of the virus.”
Dr. LaBaer also noted that the number of people looking for COVID-19 tests has decreased. He emphasized the importance of testing people as much as possible.