In 2016, Arizona Republicans controlled both Senate seats and gave Donald J. Trump the victory. In 2020, they had lost each of these state elections, and Trump was one of only two Republican presidential candidates to lose his state in more than 50 years.
The losses are not provoking any kind of conscience check in the state’s Republican Party.
Instead, when the party leadership meets this weekend, the most pressing items on the agenda will be censorship of three moderate Republicans who remain widely popular in Arizona. The almost certain rebuke from the state party will have no practical impact, but the symbolism is striking: a slap in the hand for Cindy McCain, Senator John McCain’s widow; former Senator Jeff Flake and Governor Doug Ducey.
While some Republicans across the country are starting to move away from Trumpism, Arizona is a case of loyalists folding, potentially dividing the party in fundamental and irreparable ways. The consequences can be particularly acute in a state that has long been a safe Republican gamble but has undergone significant political change in recent years, largely due to the increased political participation of young Latinos and changes in opinion from white suburbanites women.
State party president Kelli Ward, who was elected for the first time in 2019, announced that she would run for re-election only after speaking with Trump, who she said enthusiastically encouraged her. For months, Ms. Ward sent out fundraising appeals talking about what she calls a “stolen” election. Arizona state lawmakers have frequently participated in the “Stop the Steal” rallies in the state, promoting conspiracy theories and debunking charges of fraud. Two state congressmen helped plan the January 6 rally in Washington, which drew the crowd that later invaded the Capitol. They also wrote statements of support about the protesters.
When Ali Alexander, one of the main organizers of the Capitol protest, wrote on Twitter “I am willing to give up my life for this fight”, the Arizona Republican Party account retweeted and asked his followers: “He is. You’re?”
Far-right extremism is nothing new in Arizona. The state has spawned anti-immigrant frontier militias, legislation that effectively legalized the racial profile, and is home to Joe Arpaio, the former sheriff of Maricopa County who has spread a tough message about immigration. But the kind of Trump fervor that has been on vivid display in the state since the November election has gained momentum that even some conservatives in the state find alarming. Within hours of Joseph R. Biden Jr. being declared the winner of the election, hundreds of protesters appeared at the State Capitol, many dropping military-style weapons and waving flags depicting Trump as Rambo.
The Republican Party of Arizona has long been engaged and promotes extremist elements, mainly in the area of immigration, and has an anti-government tendency that goes back to Barry Goldwater, a former state senator. Still, some Republicans in Arizona have started to sound the alarm, warning that the party is falling by the wayside in a state where independent voters make up almost a third of the electorate.
“The angry and spiteful message that is coming out of the party now is not going to win the new west,” said Adam Kwasman, a former state legislator who was once named one of the state’s most conservative lawmakers during his term and who voted for Trump last year. past.
He said his loyalty is more to the party than to the president. “If we want Arizona not to become Colorado, just turn this state over to the Democrats, we have to focus on working families, and if we don’t, we’re doomed,” he said, adding, “We are in a really disconcerting place. “
There are already indications that Mr. Kwasman is right to be concerned. Nearly 5,000 registered voters abandoned their Republican Party membership the week after January 6. Some former Republican Party members warn that a constant erosion of the party’s narrow margin on the electoral register is coming.
“There’s an act of serial theft going on now,” said Chuck Coughlin, a former Republican strategist in Phoenix who changed his own party affiliation in 2017 and is now independent. In the dozens of calls Coughlin received from concerned Republicans, he said, his advice was consistent: don’t worry about trying to save someone who supported “acts of sedition”. “It became a party of total contempt for any authority, except for one man. The Republican Party is in the middle of its own French Revolution now. “
It is difficult to know how much the party’s state leadership represents basic Republicans. But thousands of voters turned up at the State Capitol in Phoenix for several “Stop the Steal” rallies, including an improvised protest on the day the general elections were called in November. Like other state capitals across the country, the copper-domed building in Phoenix was surrounded by a six-foot-high wire fence over the weekend, and officials remain on high alert for potential violence on the day of the inauguration.
A group of Republican state lawmakers issued a subpoena to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, demanding that he hand over the voting machines, along with images of all the ballots sent and detailed voter information. Although the Democrats won across the state, the Republicans retained control of both houses of the legislature, allowing them to continue to litigate the unmasked notion of fraud, despite the fact that all eight legal challenges have failed in court.
“We have retained our majority and this is more reason to suspect a fraudulent election,” said Sonny Borrelli, a state senator, falsely suggesting that the presidential ballots have been tampered with. Borrelli said he received more than 100,000 messages from Arizona residents asking the legislature to investigate further allegations of fraud. “It just adds fuel to the fire and we’re going to focus on it,” he said. “This is our job.”
A state test for the party is not far off: Mark Kelly, the Democrat who won a special election for his Senate seat in November, will be re-elected in 2022. Ducey is widely discussed as a possible opponent, performing as a business-friendly moderate. But Republicans across the spectrum say that while Ducey was the last Republican to win a state election, he would face an uphill battle during Republican primaries.
“It would be a fight with bare fingers, and it would probably be unpleasant,” said Coughlin.
Mr. Ducey and his aides declined to comment on this article, and he should not challenge the state party’s vote to censor it.
Any accusations of malice do not appear to deter the state party or Mrs. Ward, who did not return calls for comment. Last month, Ms. Ward tweeted to Ducey with the hashtag #STHU – an Internet word for “shut up” – when Ducey defended the state’s electoral process.
Mr. Ducey responded by saying that the feeling was mutual and that Mrs. Ward should “practice what you preach”.
And this is not the first time that the state party has been involved in public with the McCain family. In 2014, the party censored McCain himself because of his voting record.
Mrs. McCain responded to the threat of her own censorship with equal parts of boredom and amusement.
“It’s about doing what’s right for the country,” said McCain during an appearance on “The View,” which is co-hosted by his daughter Meghan. “Certainly, Senator Flake and our governor have made some very difficult decisions recently and in the past, but it was for the good of our state and our country.”
“You know, I’m in good company,” he added. “I think I’m going to make T-shirts for everyone and use them.”
Mr. Flake, who supported Mr. Biden in the presidential election, wrote on Twitter that he was also not concerned with censorship.
“If tolerating the president’s behavior is necessary to remain in the Party’s good graces, I am very well to be out,” he wrote.
Robert Graham, who was president of the state party from 2013 to 2017, considered censorship a waste of time, at best, and pointed out that McCain won each of the state elections he ran for.
“The only goal of a state party is to win elections,” said Graham. “When the president of the state attacks someone in your family, you break the party. The resolution will pass, deprive a bunch of Republicans and be put in a briefcase and become a memory forever. “
Rather than further fragmenting the base, Graham said, party officials should focus on solidarity.
“The right was even more encouraged because there was someone in the highest office with a giant megaphone,” he said. “But in Arizona you have a governor who is in his last term, so it’s time for the Republican Party to come together, come together and become what it will be for the next four years. The mission here should be if you get beaten up, do a transformational update. “
John Fillmore, a state deputy who participated in several protests, likened the debate within the party to a “cleansing” and said he was more concerned with purging those who criticized Trump than losing voters.
“The party is confused and absolute turncoats like Jeff Flake and Liz Cheney will feel the ire of Republican voters,” said Fillmore. “We are a family and, in the end, what happened was that the family members went against the family and did it with full force. That’s what Padrinho said: Never go against the family. It’s sad.”
On January 6, in Phoenix, a group of protesters who opposed the certification of the results of the presidential election erected a guillotine near the golden-domed Capitol. The group distributed a document to reporters explaining their actions: Concerned Americans, they said, are concerned that votes have not been counted properly. They had “met peacefully, made calls and pleaded with their elected officials to hear their concerns.”
As they gathered, the crowd in Washington stormed the Capitol building – actions that the Arizona party would later blame on the antifa.
On Sunday, in Phoenix and in capitals across the country, the police were preparing for another round of protests. Only a handful of protesters showed up. The guillotine was gone.