From bubonic plague to COVID-19, why the blocks seem destined to remain

A year after the blockade imposed in the Chinese city of Wuhan shocked the world, the tactic is proving to be a lasting tool for cracking down on coronavirus almost everywhere.

When the first large-scale blockade in modern times was implemented in China on January 23, at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, it was considered unproven and unthinkable, especially by democratic governments that refused to see the implications of human rights violations. limit citizens’ freedom of movement on such a large scale.

Still, almost 12 months later, the United Kingdom is in the middle of its third national blockade, while fighting a mutant coronavirus strain. In Australia, the recent discovery of a case in Brisbane led to a three-day block. And China, which is experiencing its biggest outbreak since the pandemic began with more than 500 cases, blocked three cities around Beijing this month.

“Before COVID-19, there was a strong global health discourse that argued against similar mass blockades and quarantines. This is just one area of ​​thinking that the current pandemic has overcome, ”said Nicholas Thomas, an associate professor of health security at City University of Hong Kong.

“As far as possible, the blockages will become part of the essential toolkit for governments to use to deal with outbreaks in progress and also in the future,” he said.

War measures

The speed with which China arrested millions of people when the pandemic broke out marked the first time that the measure was taken on such a large scale in modern times.

Until last year, severe blockages were synonymous with the waves of bubonic plague that swept Europe from the 14th century. Even during the Spanish flu of the early 20th century, no blockages were imposed centrally. China, however, has imposed three main roadblocks in recent history: during an outbreak of bubonic plague in its northeast in 1901, and two short after the Sichuan earthquake in 2008 and another during an outbreak of bubonic plague in Gansu province in 2014. .

Foreign countries that were surprised by the Wuhan blockade found themselves doing the same thing a few months later, when the virus spread uncontrollably.

After an infectious disease affects a number of people, the blockages cannot be avoided because no other measures can stop the spread, said Jiang Qingwu, professor of epidemiology at Shanghai Fudan University.

It is clear, however, that there is still a huge gap between what the Chinese government is able to impose on its citizens during a blockade compared to democratic countries. Always quick to declare what the government routinely calls “wartime” measures in response to a relatively low number of infections, local authorities have also ensured compliance through actions such as the complete closure of residential complexes. In some cases, people cannot go out to get food, and deliveries are organized for them.

According to the authors of a study conducted by Bloomberg Economics comparing how democratic countries fared against the most authoritarian in dealing with the pandemic, “a rapid and rigorous blockade is the type of automatic reaction that arises more naturally in authoritarian regimes than democratic. “

In China’s last blockade in Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei province, the stringent measures resemble those of the Wuhan blockade, which ended on April 8 after infections fell to zero. Residents in the northeastern city, 180 miles (290 kilometers) southwest of Beijing, are required to stay home for seven days while the city embarks on a second round of mass testing for the entire population of 11 million, as cases in the region exceed 500. Flights and trains entering and leaving the city have been disrupted, as have almost all public transport.

In contrast, democracies like the United Kingdom, in their version of lockdowns, often allow people to leave the house to buy food and medicine, walk dogs or exercise. Schools remained open in France’s autumn blockade, while in its last two-week blockade this month, Israel is allowing people to gather outdoors in groups of up to 10, with exemptions for religious activities.

But there were also examples of democratic governments that impose extreme rules. A state government in Australia, where authorities reacted fiercely to the crises, even banned outdoor exercise and dog walking during a brief blockade in November.

Winter resurgence

Chinese officials argue that the country’s reaction to the crisis proves that its approach works. And a resurgence of the virus in the winter in countries like South Korea, Japan and Sweden, which originally succeeded with a minimal disruption approach that avoided blockages, reinforces the case for stricter measures, especially as tired citizens disregard advice to stay at home.

“Given the large number and high density of China, we have proved that (these measures) are very effective,” said Mi Feng, a spokesman for the country’s National Health Commission.

In addition to concerns about civil liberties, many governments remain hesitant to impose the types of total blockades as seen in China because of the economic cost – although a survey of the latest World Economic Outlook by the International Monetary Fund has shown that if countries were decisive in take such measures, performed better in terms of protecting the economy. New Zealand is an example, recording only 25 deaths after quickly imposing blockades, with life returning to near normality soon after.

However, even China, whose economy has returned to full force, is aware of economic pressure. Since the Wuhan blockade, authorities have avoided the closure of economically important cities like Beijing, despite substantial explosions. Authorities mainly resorted to aggressive contact tracking during an outbreak in the capital last summer.

“As effective as blockages are, they are expensive,” said Yanzhong Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University in New Jersey. “Even for China, it is unsustainable in the long run,” he added, comparing reflective blocking decisions to “throwing cannonballs at mosquitoes.”

With vaccination initiatives now being implemented rapidly in major western countries and China, the hope is that blockages will be much less common in 2021, although substantial uncertainty remains about how long it will take to vaccinate enough of the world population to safely recompose open the global economy.

Despite the economic implications, the legacy of COVID-19 is likely to continue to be deployed during outbreaks of highly communicable diseases in the future, especially since they are now a familiar concept for people everywhere for the first time in a century.

“The restrictive quarantine itself is not a new invention and its application dates back to the Black Death in medieval times,” said Huang. “But it is ironic that this ancient method remains the most effective, despite tremendous progress in the medical sciences.”