Modern (NASDAQ: MRNA) announced its share of good news in recent months. The biotechnology company generated positive results in the phase 3 trial of its experimental vaccine against coronavirus. The Food and Drug Administration then granted Emergency Use Authorization for the product in the following weeks. Moderna also signed pre-purchase contracts for 2021, which represent more than $ 11 billion in revenue. This is big business for a company that had no product revenue just a few months ago.
It all looks promising. But there are some even better news. This means that Moderna’s vaccine is viable for long-term use. Ready to find out more? Read.
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A great stranger
A major unknown for all vaccines under development is the duration of protection against the coronavirus. In the case of Moderna and rivals such as Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX), measures of neutralizing antibody levels were strong weeks after immunization. These are antibodies known to block infection. But it is too early to say whether these antibody levels would remain strong for at least a year.
If antibody levels drop significantly, the vaccine’s effectiveness also decreases. And if these antibodies disappear completely, the body will be rendered defenseless. Here is a possibility that the researchers feared: a vaccine resulting in a strong antibody response for just a month or two. This would mean that each person would have to be vaccinated several times a year.
In December, Moderna delivered optimistic news in a letter to the editor published in The new English medical journal. The company examined neutralizing antibody levels in 34 phase 1 participants, three months after receiving the second dose of the vaccine. Although levels fell slightly, as expected, they remained high, the company said. And they remained higher than those of patients recovering from coronavirus.
Even better news came earlier this month. Moderna’s CEO Stephane Bancel said the vaccine could offer protection for “a few years”. This raises the big question of how long the antibodies will last.
Moderna started clinical trials only in March. Therefore, it is impossible for the company to draw that conclusion from 12 months or more of test data. But Bancel explains the idea by saying that “antibody decay” in humans vaccinated with the Modern vaccine has been slow.
A booster dose
Of course, this applies only to the Modern vaccine. The duration of Pfizer and BioNTechThe vaccine or rival vaccine candidates are still unclear. Therefore, this news puts Moderna ahead of the rest with regard to a very important element of the vaccination issue. Moderna hasn’t yet recommended how often people should get their vaccine. But the company is planning to test the possibility of a booster given a year after vaccinating two doses of a person. This study will begin in July.
Moderna’s plans for a booster injection one year after the initial vaccination – or even a complete vaccination with two annual doses – are ideal scenarios. Here are the advantages: Allow Moderna enough time to manufacture and administer doses. And more people can be protected with a number of doses if vaccination is done annually, rather than a few months.
An annual vaccine also means that health systems have enough time to organize vaccinations. And people will be more likely to get their vaccines; most would not continue to be vaccinated every two months in the long run.
What does all this mean for investors?
This news removes a significant element of uncertainty. If Moderna’s vaccine had only worked for a few months, it would have been disastrous for the company and the stock price – especially if a rival vaccine manufacturer produced longer-lasting immunity.
That said, Moderna is still a risky investment. For now, the revenue and performance of the biotechnology company’s shares depend on the vaccine against coronavirus (its only product sold). If something goes wrong, stocks can fall seriously.
But Moderna is not as risky as it was last year – when the coronavirus vaccine program was in its early stages and its mRNA technology had not yet been validated. It has already overcome the obstacles of clinical trials, emergency authorization and now vaccine duration. All of this is good news, establishing Moderna as a solid player in the coronavirus vaccine market. And that means that Moderna’s stock, which rose more than 400% last year, may be on its way to a second year of victories.