The Pentagon has authorized up to 25,000 members of the National Guard to help protect Washington, DC, for the day of inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden. This is in addition to the thousands of US Secret Service, Capitol Police and DC police who will be in force for the event.
This is a massive security presence. For comparison, this is about half of the total number of American troops currently stationed in Japan. President Barack Obama’s “increase” in additional US troops in Afghanistan in late 2009 consisted of 30,000 soldiers.
And so far, no one – from the US Secret Service to the FBI and the National Guard itself – has provided a clear reason for the need for such a large force to protect the nation’s capital.
At a press conference on Friday, Matt Miller, agent in charge of the Secret Service field office in Washington, told reporters, “We cannot allow a recurrence” of the type of violence seen in the US Capitol uprising last week.
However, no one I spoke to on Friday would explain why 25,000 National Guard soldiers were needed to prevent such a recurrence.
The National Guard sent me to the Secret Service. Secret Service spokeswoman Justine Whelan said the force did not comment on “means and methods”. When I talked about the desire to know about the threat, not the means or methods, she said: “I consider the way operational decisions are considered and made, in consultation with our partners, a method”.
The FBI referred me to comments made by FBI director Christopher Wray at a briefing with Vice President Mike Pence on Thursday, in which Wray said: “We are seeing a lot of worrying online conversations – this is the best way that I would describe – about a series of events surrounding the inauguration. “
Washington’s mayor’s office, Muriel Bowser, and the city’s police department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. However, the mayor said on Friday, at the same press conference in which Miller spoke: “Clearly, we are in unknown waters.”
At present, some 7,000 members of the National Guard surround the Capitol behind an inaccessible fence alongside federal officials like the Secret Service – which is responsible for security on Induction Day – and local forces like the Washington police.
Together, they established a wide perimeter around the Capitol and the National Mall, making it almost impossible for any vehicle or unauthorized person to reach blocks from the main building.
I know this because I walked around the entire perimeter twice this week. I can safely report that what is already installed is a true fortress, and it is hard to imagine anyone beating the armed guards like Trump’s friendly crowd did on January 6.
Even so, federal officials seem concerned about the potential violence when Biden is sworn in. His inauguration rehearsal, originally planned for Sunday, was postponed for security reasons. The National Mall is closed until January 21.
A robust security presence around Capitol is certainly guaranteed, given the potential threats we already know. The plan may be to ensure that there is more than enough security around the opening to quickly eliminate any potential threats. It can also be a measure of deterrence: a force large enough can deter anyone with violent designs from attempting an attack.
The problem is that the public simply does not know the real plan or the real extent of the threat. Having 25,000 National Guard members on site – in addition to all local and federal fences and police – may be the right amount. Or not enough, which would be worrying. Or a lot, which would be a failure to properly assess the situation and a major nuisance for DC residents.
The only people who gave me something similar to an assessment were three members of the New York National Guard who were protecting the Capitol on Friday, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity to speak freely and avoid reprisals. They said that, as of now, they do not think that more members of the National Guard are needed to protect the Capitol.
But it can also aggravate another problem: the Covid-19 pandemic. New York National Guard members said they would not be tested before entering service and would undergo two weeks of quarantine when they returned home. It is possible, then, that a larger military presence could lead to a greater chance of infection among the ranks.
None of this means that all these agencies are trying to protect the information with jealousy. They may simply want to maintain details that could be useful to armed protesters outside the public domain or not to derail any of their intelligence gathering strategies.
Still, it would be nice to have a clear understanding of why 25,000 members of the National Guard need to be sent to the country’s capital to ensure the transfer of power.