A recent study estimated the average life expectancy in the United States dropped by more than a year in 2020, with the country’s mortality due to COVID-19 leaning towards the researchers’ higher mortality projections.
The results were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Thursday by researchers from Princeton and the University of Southern California. The study offered four projections based on total estimates of coronavirus deaths in the United States as of December 31, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“The reduction in US life expectancy in 2020 is projected to exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a life expectancy below all other high-income developed nations before the pandemic – they will see their life expectancy falls even further behind their peers “, wrote the researchers in the study.
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In retrospect, the US almost filled the higher mortality scenario, which the study authors pointed to 348,000 deaths at the end of last year. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, there were about 345,900 deaths reported due to the new virus on December 31. Deaths increased to at least 388,692 on Friday morning, with the country reporting 3,928 additional deaths on the last day.
If the pandemic did not happen, the study authors note that a person born in 2020 would live, on average, about 79 years, although researchers project that the terrible mortality caused by the virus has reduced nearly 1.22 years of the average life expectancy.
Black and Latin American populations were projected to experience significantly greater declines in life expectancy compared to white populations, with researchers citing “lasting structural inequalities” that increase the risk of death and exposure to COVID-19. In fact, declines in life expectancy among these minorities were projected to roughly triple the white population: “Under the higher mortality scenario, life expectancy is projected at 0.73 [years] lower for the white population, 2.26 [years] lower for the black population, and 3.28 [years] lower for the Latin population. “
These disparities are consistent with the figures released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which report high rates of hospitalizations, cases and deaths for black and Latino populations, compared to white populations, with a mortality rate almost tripled and hospitalization rates among Latin and black populations exceeding white populations by 4.1, 3.7 times, respectively.
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The researchers said that the highest number of victims may be related to jobs with lower wages, job losses and problems with health insurance, but also exposure to high risk among essential workers, crowded housing and dependence on public transport, among other factors.
“The biggest toll for black and Latino populations arises because of the higher COVID-19 mortality rates and the increased susceptibility to COVID-19 at younger ages among these groups compared to whites,” wrote the study authors.
Noteworthy, the team examined the gaps in life expectancy between racial groups, finding an increase of approximately 39% in the “difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites”, from 3.6 to more than five years, which researchers say the progress made in the last 15 years is reversed.