Odd Man Out, Sweden, attacked by viruses, gets the program

Photographer: Jonathan Nackstarnd / AFP / Getty Images

After taking the world’s mildest approach to dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, Sweden is tightening the screws.

As of Sunday, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven’s government can fine and close deals that do not follow restrictions, such as limits on visitors, as well as restrict private meetings, under a new law that will run until September. It is a game of relying mainly on recommendations and trusting that people will follow them. With the health system under increasing pressure and the death toll rising, some say it was too late.

“Like many places in Sweden Learned about the virus in the most difficult way, ”said William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, who has followed the country’s strategy closely. “Sweden was very slow. There was ample evidence in the spring, in Sweden and elsewhere, of what might be expected in the fall and winter if the policy was not changed and these are the consequences. “

In pursuing its unusual strategy, Sweden questioned other nations’ decisions to block. Its path to mandatory restrictions left the Nordic country with more than three times as many virus deaths per capita as Denmark, the closest regional pair in terms of fatalities. Confidence in the government has waned and has been exacerbated by senior officials – including Lofven himself – breaking his own rules. Even King Carl XVI Gustaf considered the nation’s response to be a failure.

As in the rest of the world, the debate in the pandemic era revolved around the balance between people’s health and the consequences of closing economies. Sweden’s economy has remained better than most, while deaths now exceed 9,600.

Nordic Outlier

The death toll Covid-19 in Sweden is the highest in the Nordic countries

Source: Johns Hopkins University

Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, who in June labeled countries that opted for rigid blocks as “crazy ”, said the pandemic law should not be seen as a turnaround, but an extension of what has already been done.

“We are still working mainly on voluntary measures for individuals,” he said in an interview. “And we are working mainly with the regulation of different types of agencies, different types of stores where regulations are necessary for them to fulfill their obligations.”

One of Tegnell’s main detractors, Professor Bjorn Olsen, of Uppsala University, said that “reality has reached the Public Health Agency”.

“They have been extremely stubborn in maintaining the strategy without listening or doing any external analysis,” he said.

Anders Litzen lost his mother Agnetha, 71, in the spring, sitting next to her for the past 16 hours with full protective gear. The 42-year-old man, who lost his job because of the pandemic and started working as a hospital corridor, said government communication has been very vague.

“‘My mother, and I think most Swedes, didn’t take it very seriously,” said Litzen. “I can’t say that what Sweden did was right or wrong, but from a personal perspective, I think that when you want to send a message, it has to be strong and clear.”

Lofven and health officials, facing initial criticism including President Donald Trump, acknowledged in April that the country had failed to protect its elderly in nursing homes. A government-appointed commission recently came to a similar conclusion.

Sweden made “good decisions” by taking tougher measures, Mike Ryan, head of the World Health Organization’s emergency program, told reporters on Monday.

“It is an example of how difficult it is to sustain social and public health measures that are purely determined by the individual’s willingness or determination to carry out these measures,” said Ryan. “Somehow, it tells us that in the beginning of 2021 how difficult and challenging this environment is.”

Health Versus Economy

The Nordic region’s largest economy has weathered the crisis better than most Western nations, with its factories less affected by supply disruptions in late 2020.

Differences in blocking strategies between the Nordic and Baltic countries were offset by their common dependence on manufacturing, so they benefited from a recovery in global trade, according to SEB AB chief economist Robert Bergqvist. “When we summarized 2020, the industry helped us to endure some of the recessions seen in many other countries.”

Post-holiday rejection

Economic activity partially recovered in early January

Source: Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, German Statistical Office, BloombergNEF, Even.com, Shoppertrak.com, Opportunity Insights

Low levels of indebtedness also allowed Sweden to trigger fiscal stimulus, supported by Riksbank’s asset purchase program. Although the pandemic law may require additional stimulus measures, “in an international perspective, Sweden will still continue to have very strong central government finances,” Danske Bank said in its Nordic Outlook last week.

Leadership Void