MLB teams that should take a big step

The Mets caused the biggest crash of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-handed Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland. Getting two players of this caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in any context. But it was especially great for the

The Mets caused the biggest crash of the Hot Stove season last Thursday, acquiring shortstop Francisco Lindor and right-handed Carlos Carrasco of Cleveland.

Getting two players of this caliber – especially a star as magnetic as Lindor – is remarkable in any context. But it was especially important for the Mets, given their place in the competitive National League East, led by three-time champion of the Braves division. According to Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, his ZiPS system had the Mets seven games behind Atlanta in the projected rating before the negotiation. Now, the two teams are practically tied, with the Mets’ chances of making the postseason jump about 31 percentage points, to 72.4%.

In fact, ZiPS shows that at the time of Lindor’s switch, the Mets had more to gain than any team, in terms of playoff probability, by making an addition of five wins to their list (or roughly Lindor’s combined impact and Carrasco). But there are many other clubs that would have an impact comparable to that change.

Working with Szymborski’s calculations, here are five of the teams that could most benefit from a Mets-sized splash, and a way in which each could accomplish this type of feat. Note that these suggested moves are not necessarily at the level of five wins – these are hard to come by – but would still provide a significant boost to each team’s October hopes.

Angels
This is a moment of opportunity in Anaheim. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are superstars in their cousins, and the American League West may be as ready to be won as it has been for some time. Houston and Oakland are likely to lose several key players, while Seattle and Texas don’t seem ready to return to the top of the standings yet. New Angels general manager Perry Minasian replaced Andrelton Simmons with José Iglesias on the shortstop and added Raisel Iglesias, but he still hasn’t gotten the kind of player who makes the difference that can change the balance of power in the West.

A flashy move: Hiring right-handed agent Trevor Bauer. The initial pitch has been a sore point for the Angels, and although Dylan Bundy proved to be a great addition last year, the team’s rotation is still 19th in the projected WAR from FanGraphs. With Shohei Ohtani nowhere near a certain point at this point, paying the price to get the winner of the NL Cy Young award – designed around 4 WAR – would be the best way to help Trout return to the postseason.

Blue Jays
They seem to be in the mix for some impact players in this off-season, but so far they haven’t got any, with the rehiring of southpaw Robbie Ray, his only notable move. However, it seems to be more a question of who and when than if. The Blue Jays jumped from 95 losses in 2019 to 32-28 in the shortened campaign of 20, making the postseason behind a young core of position players and last year’s big free agent acquisition, Hyun Jin Ryu. The club still ended up behind Rays and Yankees in the division, but with Tampa Bay saying goodbye to Blake Snell and Charlie Morton and the Yankees also having a quiet winter, there’s a spot here for Toronto.

A flashy move: Hiring free agent outfielder George Springer. Although the Jays can go in a few different directions – and snatching DJ LeMahieu from the Yanks would undoubtedly be satisfactory – Springer is probably the most suitable. He would be a defensive update at the center over Randal Grichuk and would bring a history of victories, not to mention his elite baton. Springer could help make the club not only a candidate for the division, but also a candidate for the championship.

Cardinals
Indeed, this could be any of the top four teams at NL Central. Leaving the Mets aside, the Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers and Reds ranked among the five teams with the most to gain in a jump of five wins, according to ZiPS. This is because of how these clubs are compacted. Even so, none of them advanced in this off-season to try to improve their squad. (In fact, the division’s most notable moves were subtractions, headed by Yu Darvish from Chicago). As for the Cardinals, they managed to squeeze into the playoffs for consecutive seasons, but their squad is lacking in top-notch talent. Almost everything St. Louis did this winter was to refuse Kolten Wong’s club option and (for now) fail to sign the longtime faces of the franchise Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.

A flashy move: Trade for third base Nolan Arenado. Although St. Louis has been connected to the Rocky Mountain star in the past, this is probably a big stretch, given the six years and $ 199 million remaining of the Arenado contract and its post-2021 exclusion clause. But maybe Cards could be creative, given all the big contracts set to come out of the club’s books after this season (Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Andrew Miller and Carlos Martínez). Assuming his offensive fall in 2020 was the product of a strange and short season, Arenado would be a massive third update on Carpenter, 35, who has been fighting for the past two years.

Nationals
Although the Hot Stove has been at a low boil so far, the Nats have been relatively active, dealing with a narrow line-up by switching to first baseman Josh Bell and hiring left field player Kyle Schwarber. Washington has met two major areas of need and now has a little more impact behind Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but, frankly, the job shouldn’t be done. Lindor’s trade made that clear, with ZiPS now seeing Nats as a third place behind Braves and Mets.

A flashy move: Hiring free agent catcher JT Realmuto. Nats’ questionable depth means that general manager Mike Rizzo could also make a significant addition to second or third base, or even to the initial rotation, where there are many question marks behind Max Scherzer’s Big Three, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin . But Nats catchers, led by Yan Gomes, are nearing the end of FanGraphs’ projections, while Realmuto has a strong case as the best versatile backstop in the game. If Washington is willing to make the necessary financial commitment, that would go a long way in challenging Atlanta and New York.

Gemini
Lindor’s switch helped Minnesota, whose post-season probability of ZiPS rose to nearly 75%, with Cleveland dropping back to third place in AL Central. On the other hand, the twins saw the division’s other main competitor, the White Sox, switch to Lance Lynn and now reach an agreement with free agent Liam Hendriks, according to sources. The twins have been relatively quiet, and if they intend to accompany Chicago and win the third consecutive division title, some reinforcements are needed – even after Nelson Cruz’s seemingly inevitable return.

A flashy move: Trade by Luis castillo or Sonny Gray. Both starting pitchers appear in trade negotiations, with the Reds receiving additional payroll cuts, and both are among MLB’s top 20 pitchers (with Castillo just above Gray). The Twins’ rotation is strong at the top (Kenta Maeda, José Berríos), but a little unstable below that, especially considering that Jake Odorizzi and Rich Hill are free agents. While Minnesota could be content to acquire depth back from the rotation, having Castillo or Gray replacing fifth-round options Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe would be the best way to contain the White Sox. Such a move would cost the twins potential fortunes, but neither would break the bank.