Although President-elect Joe Biden’s immediate focus is likely to be the problematic domestic situation, with the Covid-19 pandemic and the political divide in the United States, the Trump administration also chose, as part of its final act, to hand him a series new international diplomatic dilemmas. In some cases, these are life and death situations.
These measures, announced by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, mean that Biden will begin his presidential term with several important international relations involved in controversy, thanks to the policies established by his predecessor.
“The Trump administration is waging a series of conflicts that change the starting point for Biden’s entry into office on the world stage,” said Raffaello Pantucci, senior member of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.
However, since Washington established formal diplomatic ties with Beijing in 1979, it has resisted having official diplomatic relations with Taipei to avoid a confrontation with the communist leadership on the continent, which still sees the island – home to some 24 million people – – as part of China.
Critics fear this week’s move by the Trump administration will give Beijing an edge over the next Biden government, although the U.S.’s reinforced support for Taiwan against an increasingly assertive China has largely been a bipartisan consensus in Washington.
“If the United States decides that it wants to work with China on climate change, for example, China may require the United States to reverse its position in relation to Taiwan,” said Pantucci.
And whether China fails in the United States, like it or not, Biden may well have to work with China to tackle climate change, global terrorism and all kinds of other issues.
Analysts had long hoped that Biden would maintain an aggressive position in China, but they believed that he would work with international allies to build a coherent coalition, rather than maintaining Trump’s maximum pressure approach.
“What Biden must do is work with European allies to have a strategy aligned with China, but it takes time to build it,” said Leslie Vinjamuri, program director for the United States and the Americas at Chatham Casa, Lar. “You don’t need any more immediate problems down the road.”
Getting partners – especially those in Europe – to share a unified position in China was already a difficult task.
“European countries have very different attitudes towards China, with some – like the UK – very concerned and others – like Italy and Germany – more focused on China as an export market,” said Tom Tugendhat, president of UK’s Foreign Select Affairs Committee.
While it is tempting to suggest that Biden could simply reverse the policy as soon as he takes office, it ignores the lose-lose situation in which Trump left the elected president.
As Pantucci points out, the capitulation “would cost Biden political capital at home”, where anti-China sentiment is very strong across the political corridor. If Biden re-enforces restrictions on contacts with Taiwan, it would also allow Beijing to claim that the United States has accepted its status as a province of China.
This “could have major implications for Taiwan’s own democracy, as Xi and his allies did not hesitate to assert their authority when they had the space to do so,” added Pantucci. Although it is “very unlikely that China will attack Taipei”, Pantucci warned that there may be “more meddling [by Beijing] in politics, interfering economically “if Trump’s policy remains in effect.
Intimidating the Houthis is ‘a fantasy’
The situation in Yemen is equally worrying and, as a result of the Trump administration’s actions, potentially more deadly.
The war in Yemen has been going on since 2014. Diplomatic paths to end the conflict between the Saudi government and Iranian-backed Hutile rebels have so far failed.
It has been described by UNICEF as the “biggest humanitarian crisis in the world, with more than 24 million people – about 80% of the population – in need of humanitarian assistance, including more than 12 million children”.
“The designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization will not help to resolve this conflict in any sense and, in fact, is in danger of prolonging it,” said Chris Doyle, director of the British-Arab Council of Understanding.
“There are risks that the hard-line Houthi will feel empowered to turn more to Iran. They will not be willing to be involved in diplomatic processes or channels of return to Saudi Arabia.”
The longer the crisis lasts, the worse things will get for those in need of humanitarian assistance, analysts said.
The designation of terrorism will only make it more difficult for aid groups to deliver food and medical supplies to the country. It will also “make it difficult for aid organizations to have employees on site, as Houthis can control Yemen’s two main entry points,” said Doyle.
“By choosing sides in a conflict, you can really harm civilian populations and that is very irresponsible,” added Doyle. “The idea that you can intimidate the Houthis to soften your posture is a fantasy.”
Nail in the coffin for Obama’s Cuba policy
Pompeo’s reassignment of Cuba as a sponsor of state terrorism is likely to have the least material impact, but it represents a personal loss for Biden and a significant political victory for Trumpism.
In doing so, Trump is hammering the final nail into the coffin of Barack Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba.
Stories have been and will continue to be written about how Trump’s hard line towards Cuba’s communist leaders worked well with the Latin vote in Florida. This final act may well leave a legacy for anyone who carries the Trump torch in 2024.
“If the United States now goes to Cuba and says it wants to go back to where things were at the end of the Obama administration, Cuba can legitimately ask why it would bother when it is possible that someone like Trump could be elected again in 2024,” said Pantucci .
And a reboot, while not top of his priority list, may have been something that Biden would have considered, since he was Obama’s vice president.
The legacy issue is something that Vinjamuri is paying special attention to.
“These are really the last days of the Trump administration and they really seem to be laying the groundwork for something they can build on,” she said, suggesting that Pompeo’s final moves could be an attempt to polish his hardline credentials for a race. in the 2024 presidential elections.
Biden will take office on January 20. Trump will be gone – at least for now – but his impact on the world will be felt in the years to come.
And the new government can take a full mandate to disentangle the last-minute decisions made by its predecessor.