Will DJ LeMahieu likely return to the Yankees?

At the beginning of this off-season, most members of the industry took DJ LeMahieu and the Yankees would remain together, even while LeMahieu tested the free agent’s waters. A recent report suggested that the veteran infielder may be ready to look elsewhere. A panel of MLB.com reporters met to discuss.

Alyson Footer (@alysonfooter, moderator): A recent Yahoo report suggested that DJ LeMahieu is unhappy that the Yankees are not being more aggressive in contract negotiations and he instructed his representation to open the floor to other suitors. What do we do with it? I feel that in normal times, that would be a big deal than it is now. This has been such a slow winter.

Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand, executive reporter): Honestly, I’m not sure how much other teams interpret anything they see in the media reports. It is difficult to know where the information comes from.

Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello, analyst): To be honest, I was shocked at the idea that they had arrived in January without heavily involving other teams. Can this be true?

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Feinsand: The Yankees made it clear that they want LeMahieu back, and LeMahieu has declared his desire to return to New York. As Gordon Gecko once said, the rest is talk.

Petriello: As much as I hate to say it, I think Mark is right. It’s not like all the other teams are, well, OK, now we can think of LeMahieu. It doesn’t work like that.

Feinsand: I always come back to one thing: when was the last time the Yankees wanted to retain a player and that player left? Andy Pettitte in 2003, I suppose, but there were other circumstances that drew him to Houston. Robinson Canó was not a player that the Yankees wanted so badly back for the price he was asking for, so they made him a $ 175 million offer from seven years that they knew he would reject.

When the Yankees want to bring a player back, they do. When all is said and done, I hope LeMahieu will remain with the Yankees. At the very least, these reports can give teams that were already interested in LeMahieu a glimmer of hope. Could they now increase their offer and try to close a deal? Right. But I find it hard to believe that the Yankees will not have a chance to match this offer before LeMahieu signs elsewhere.

Petriello: It also looks like How To Be An Agent 101 if you’re trying to send a signal to the Yankees, actually.

Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson, Blue Jays reporter): The Blue Jays have always liked LeMahieu, but they also see what the rest of us see: LeMahieu’s likely return to the Yankees. The Blue Jays have been one of the “also interested” teams with multiple players in this off season and this will continue, as the league knows how much financial flexibility they have, but finishing second or third in the search for a great free agent won’t take them anywhere. It is encouraging to know that LeMahieu is more open to talking to other teams, but are these other teams legitimate options or simply tools being used in his dealings with New York?

Footer: Keegan’s point is good. Teams like Blue Jays certainly don’t want to be “played” like a pawn to push the price up. The Yankees may be assuming they are going to offer LeMahieu more anyway. But you can’t raise your bids without two teams. So, can some gaming skills be at play here too?

Feinsand: And Joel Wolfe doesn’t need a beginner’s lesson on how to be an agent.

Hey, if the Blue Jays can push the price up, they can force the Yankees to A) overpay to bring it back, or B) decide the price is too high. If the former is the case, they have forced a division rival to spend more money than they would like. If it is the last, perhaps LeMahieu will end up wearing a Toronto uniform. Win / Win.

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Petriello: I also think that perhaps LeMahieu needs the Yankees more than he would like to show. It is objectively hilarious to me that after years of playing for Coors, and all the associated overtones that come with it, he goes to the Bronx and, in two years as a Yankee, do this:

Home OPS: 1.063
Road OPS: .793

This is a difference of 240 points, without the narrative “my park at home hurts me on the road”, you can tell if you are a Rockie.

As Mark said, this seems to be the perfect combination of player and team. (Besides the fact that it would force them to keep Gleyber Torres on the shortstop, which looks, uh, bad.)

Feinsand: The whole market is slow. The fact that LeMahieu’s market is also growing shouldn’t come as a big surprise.

Matheson: Blue Jays vs. New York is a bit of a theme in this off-season. They are on George Springer, of course, as their main target, but they may be facing the Mets as their biggest challenger there. This search seems more realistic than LeMahieu, given the desired terms.

The Yankees being overtaken by the Blue Jays by their own star would be a strange new world.

Petriello: You imagine the Yankees are already watching what the Mets are up to, and losing DJ to a division rival wouldn’t make this off-season much more fun for the Steinbrenners. A small foot of the fire never hurts.

Feinsand: That is exactly why reports like this tend to get different answers. I’m not denying the report’s validity in any way, but I’m not sure how much it will influence the teams’ approach to negotiations.

Petriello: (Will not.)

Matheson: Blue Jays also don’t tend to make emotional decisions with their money. I wish I could say the same about me, but they will keep your assessment.

Footer: Let’s examine this part of the Yahoo report: “Teams that have been involved with the LeMahieu field say that LeMahieu expects more than Josh Donaldson’s four-year contract with the Minnesota Twins and at least equal to JD Martinez and US’s five-year contract. $ 110 million with the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees, LeMahieu’s favorite club after two successful seasons in the Bronx, have not met those terms. “

Petriello: This is better than the previous report, which said he had been looking for five years and $ 125 million, which was never realistic.

Feinsand: Donaldson’s contract has always been around where I imagined LeMahieu’s contract would go. I still think it’s right.

The biggest question about LeMahieu’s contract is whether any teams reach the fifth year. If they do, there is a good chance of catching it. I think the Yankees will stay for four years, although that is my personal opinion, of no one on the team.

Petriello: I think his problem here is that he has nothing close to the history of these two players, although he is obviously much more valuable as a defender than Martinez. But he’s older than people think – 33 in July – and some of the basic Metrcast metrics weren’t good this year (declines in defense, ninth percentile in the barrel rate, for whatever you want to put in a shorter season ).

He makes good solid contact and can play many positions, so he is valuable. But two years ago, he received $ 24 million in two years. He is definitely getting a good raise on that. But I was thinking more about the “four for $ 70 million” line. There is a 0.0% chance that it will reach $ 100 million.

Feinsand: I was hoping that Mike would come up with a bunch of statistics to make me feel stupid. Thanks, Mike!

Matheson: I also hope to someday be described as “older than people think”.

Feinsand: Mike, be careful with 0.0%. I wouldn’t say the chances are high that he will get more than $ 100 million, but it’s definitely a non-zero chance.

Petriello: Below zero, maybe.

Matheson: On the Blue Jays side, Mark Shapiro said: “There are still a lot of budget uncertainties, but not with regards to the Major League payroll.” Having Rogers, a communications company, as a group of owners has a very different dynamic than that of an individual owner, but the club’s message remains that the money is there. With LeMahieu, deadlines can be more of a problem than wages. This goes for Springer’s negotiations as well, or any other that extends beyond 2 to 3 seasons. In the fourth year, this young core will be getting expensive, so the Blue Jays are looking at the long-term dollars and cents of all of that too.

Feinsand: What Keegan points out about the uncertainties in the Toronto budget probably applies to all teams now. There’s still a lot we don’t know about the 2021 season – when will it start? How many games? Will there be fans in the stands? If so, how many? – that teams are still working dynamically when it comes to payroll budgets.

Matheson: And from that point – where do the Blue Jays play? If you are signing a three-year contract, for example, and one (or most of a) season takes place at a Spring Training stadium in Dunedin, Florida, how much does this affect your preference? The answer varies between players, but it is a real factor to consider.

Petriello: Keegan, if Springer and LeMahieu get similar deals … Springer is the best option for Jays, right? And they weren’t going to get both … also right?

Matheson: Springer makes more sense between the two not only at the surface level, but when you look at what Blue Jays’ fallback options would be. If they lose LeMahieu, then they can easily target an update on third base and rely on the versatile Cavan Biggio more strongly in second. It is a great result. Yes, the Blue Jays have Randal Grichuk in the center field, but adding a player of Springer’s caliber in that position is a rare opportunity, and they have been chasing for several seasons.

The Blue Jays have many top-of-the-range home opportunities also arriving at Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin. In the external field, your savior is not just around the corner.

Petriello: The tl; dr of all this for me is .. well, of course he is frustrated with the Yankees, because spring training is due to start in six weeks. There are a billion unsigned free agents. We don’t know if there is a DH. And hey, how about that pandemic? I don’t blame you for being frustrated with the slow market; I also think that very little of that is specific to DJ LeMahieu.

Feinsand: Well, the Yankees know that they will have a DH. His name is Giancarlo Stanton.

Petriello: Well, of course, but the alleged National League suitors did not. Not that he was DH, but maybe someone they currently fear holding a glove is, opening up a vacancy.

Footer: Let’s get this over with. Answer yes or no: LeMahieu will eventually sign again with the Yankees.

Petriello: I hate to go with chalk, but … yes.

Feinsand: Yes. Four years, $ 86 million, fifth year option for $ 21 million ($ 8 million acquisition). Therefore, $ 94 million in total.

Matheson: Yes. With Blue Jays, again, being “close”.

Petriello: I will say four for $ 80 million, with a purchase option easily reachable for a fifth.