There are some restrictions on how reconciliation can be used; it is not all powerful. But by allowing the Senate to pass legislation with a simple majority, it will be instrumental in advancing President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda. This is particularly true if Democrats decide not to override the obstructionist’s 60-vote limit, which is unlikely amid moderate resistance.
And Democrats will have up to three opportunities during the 117th Congress to use reconciliation. That’s because Congress can unlock the special procedure in each budget resolution, and lawmakers have never adopted a resolution for the 2021 fiscal budget and can still pass one for fiscal year 2022 and fiscal 2023 on the horizon.
Technically, Democrats could divide each attempt at reconciliation into three laws – dealing with spending, revenue and the debt limit – totaling nine accounts over two years. But it is not at all clear whether they would choose this path.
However, there are precedents for using reconciliation twice in a single year. Republicans took advantage of reconciliation in 2017 in their failed attempt to repeal Obamacare and later to successfully approve tax reform. Democrats have already used it to pass much of the Affordable Care Act, after ex-senator Scott Brown’s surprise victory took the Democrats’ 60th vote.
Typically, reconciliation can be used to accelerate the passage of any legislation with significant effect on the federal budget, and Democrats can use it to promote their economic stimulus, health, climate change and other priorities.
Before the election in early November, when Democrats were optimistic about the Senate’s capture, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told a health advocacy group that Democrats “will almost certainly pass a reconciliation bill, not just for the bill of Affordable Care, but for what we can wish to do more about the pandemic and some other issues related to the well-being of the American people. ”
Democrats are also seeking reconciliation for a massive infrastructure plan supported by a future Biden government.
“I don’t think there is any doubt that we would use it, if necessary,” House Budget President John Yarmuth told POLITICO last year. “The possibilities are endless. I think you would like to do this with the largest package possible.”
While Yarmuth will oversee budgetary action in the House, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) – a staunch supporter of Medicare for All and a fan of reconciliation – is next in line to chair the Senate Budget Committee. Of course, the new Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, will have a lot to say about everything the Sanders committee produces.
Implementing budgetary reconciliation will also require Democrats to face thorny procedural hurdles. They will almost certainly face challenges from Republicans related to the Byrd rule, named after the late Senator Robert C. Byrd, which limits the scope of the amendments and can eliminate irrelevant items in the reconciliation legislation that some Democrats may push to include.
Meanwhile, House Republicans are already denouncing an unrelated rule change, passed this week, that exempts coronavirus and climate change legislation from the so-called PAYGO budget principles, which require new spending to be offset in another place, although it is often dismissed. The change amounts to a compromise between the progressives of the Chamber who wanted to abandon PAYGO entirely and the moderates who were pressing to keep it practically intact.
“It is only the second day of the new Congress and House Democrats are already trying to move forward with their radical agenda and hoping that no one will notice,” Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), The Republican on the House Budget Committee, said earlier this week.
Still, Democrats are far from united when it comes to their fiscal priorities. House moderates this week pledged to keep an eye on the change in PAYGO rules, arguing that the party should not waive budgetary requirements amid growing deficits. And progressives have already promised to cut defense spending, to the discomfort of the most vulnerable members.
With a narrow majority in the Senate and a smaller majority in the House, Democrats will have little room for defections.
Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.), President of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, said on Wednesday that Democrats should prioritize coronavirus relief and job creation when it comes to reconciliation, including robust oversight to ensure that taxpayer dollars are well spent. More broadly, the Blue Dogs have pledged to protect “against excesses” when it comes to government one-party control.
But progressives see an opportunity to grow that Democrats cannot afford to miss.
“We have to be bold,” said Congresswoman Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Who leads the Congressional Progressive Caucus last year, when asked about the prospects for Democrats’ budget plans. “This is not a time for meekness. This is not a time for incremental change. “