Dr. Ashish K Jha (photo), dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, issued an alert on the new ‘supercovid’ variants
A leading public health expert says the new ‘supercovid’ variants could make the coronavirus pandemic in the United States up to five times more deadly.
The new strain, known as B.1.1.7 – which was first detected in the UK – has already infected at least 37 people in seven states and at least 30 countries.
In the meantime, a close cousin has been found in South Africa, the UK and at least seven other nations – but not yet in the U.S.
It is feared that it will be up to 70% more transmissible and spread more easily among children.
Dr. Ashish K Jha, dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, says that because the new variant is “significantly more infectious”, there could be up to 10 million new infections in the U.S. and up to 150,000 deaths from now until the end of February.
Because of this, he argues that the United States should also delay the administration of second doses of the coronavirus vaccine and instead give initial injections to as many Americans as possible.
In a press release, Jha wrote that a significant increase in COVID-19 infection rates will create a much more lethal pandemic, despite the fact that the new variants do not make patients sicker.
He refers to an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who hypothetically compared a strain that was 50 percent more contagious to one that was 50 percent more deadly in one Twitter topic.
The B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK has already infected at least 37 people in seven states (above), while the strain found in South Africa has yet to reach the US
Jha warns that the pandemic could become “five times more deadly” because the new variants will infect more people more quickly and overburden hospitals. Pictured: Walter Smith, a respiratory therapist, gives oxygen to a COVID-19 patient before intubating him at the Uniontown Hospital ICU in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, December 16
He recommends that authorities delay the administration of a second dose of the coronavirus vaccine so that as many people as possible receive at least one dose. In the photo: a vial of Modern COVID-19 vaccine on a table before use in Topeka, Kansas, December 30
The epidemiologist found that, in a city with 10,000 infections, the 50% more lethal strain would lead to about 193 new deaths after a month of spread.
However, the 50% most transmissible variant would lead to 978 new fatalities after one month, which is equivalent to a five-fold increase.
“Because a lower death rate in a very large number of cases produces many more deaths than a higher death rate, but a smaller number of cases,” explained Jha in the press release.
‘It is estimated that the new strain represents about [one percent] of all infections at this point, but due to the increase in contagiousness, the best estimates are that the majority of all new infections will come by March. ‘
Jha says urgent aggressive action is needed to limit the spread of the new strain, as several health systems face a severe shortage of beds and resources.
“This new, more infectious variant will change the underlying dynamics of the pandemic, with the exponential growth of infections making the virus much more difficult to contain and overwhelming our stressed health system.
“The US health care system is already reeling under the burden of the pandemic caused by the current (old) strain,” he wrote.
Some suggestions include stricter restrictions on internal meetings and the implementation of a large number of rapid tests in schools, offices and homes.
‘We should expect, without any further action, that as the new strain is established, we will see another 10 million infections in the United States between now and the end of February, and during that time, we could easily see an additional 100,000 to 150,000 deaths, ‘ He wrote.
But perhaps most importantly, Jha says the Trump administration needs to step up vaccination efforts across the country.
The government’s current policy is to retain about half of the available supply to ensure that people receive a second dose.
However, Jha says officials need to prioritize ensuring that as many Americans as possible receive at least one dose – especially the elderly – and then a second dose can be administered when more vaccines leave the production line.
Currently, there is no evidence to suggest that vaccines do not work against the new variants, and a single injection was found to be at least 50 percent effective in preventing COVID-19 infection.
The UK has already opted for this, postponing the second doses of Pfizer and University of Oxford / AstraZeneca jabs so that a larger group of people can receive their first doses.
Between fewer vaccines approved by the new year than expected, rising infection rates and the threat of new variants, Jha calls for immediate action.
“It is essential that we move forward with this variant as it spreads across the United States,” he wrote.
“If we act aggressively now, we can avoid the worst scenario of more suffering, more deaths and more economic damage that awaits us in the coming months.”