TOKYO – After days of record coronavirus counts and a rapidly increasing death toll, Japan said it would declare a state of emergency in Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures on Thursday, the country’s first declaration since April.
The announcement came five days after the governors of the affected city halls pleaded with the central government to act and after Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s own panel of coronavirus experts recommended the emergency declaration, citing the explosive growth of infections in the vast region. the capital.
Deaths from the virus in Japan have doubled in less than two months, from 3,700, and the Tokyo governor has warned that the medical system is under stress. Suga hesitated to invoke the emergency measure, in the hope of preserving economic activity, but ended up yielding to pressure from the Tokyo area authorities, as polls show widespread dissatisfaction with his four-month government and how he is dealing with the pandemic.
Suga’s shuffling of feet illustrated the difficult choices that many world leaders face for almost a year in a pandemic that is now entering a new strenuous phase, with widespread vaccinations still months away. They are under pressure to reduce the growing number of cases, despite public fatigue from virus restrictions, while bringing life back to their economies.
Health experts warn that the month-long emergency declaration may still not be enough to turn the tide.
The declaration has little legal weight and depends mainly on voluntary compliance. The government is asking restaurants in Tokyo, Chiba, Kanagawa and Saitama prefectures to close at 8 pm, that employers encourage employees to work from home and residents to avoid going out for all but the most essential tasks, also after 8 pm . , museums, cinemas, gyms and shops will remain open.
In comments to reporters after the government’s expert panel recommended the move on Tuesday, Shigeru Omi, the panel’s chief, said that declaring a state of emergency would not guarantee a reduction in the infection rate.
“You can’t control it in a few weeks, or less than a month,” said Omi. “Stronger measures may be necessary.”
Japan reported a total of 258,393 cases, far less than many western countries. After it emerged in May from its brief previous state of emergency, it maintained what it called the “Japan model”: an intense focus on tracking contacts and eliminating clusters, widespread use of masks and as few restrictions on the economy as possible.
But as Japan has experienced record-breaking days for new infections since the end of last month – Tokyo reported more than 2,000 cases on Thursday, and the country a record 5,953 – its model for fighting the coronavirus is under pressure. Japan is not expected to start inoculating the public until at least the end of February, a process that will take months.
“We are having a lot of cases to track now and the state of emergency is coming too late,” said Fumie Sakamoto, infection control manager at St. Luke’s International Hospital in Tokyo. “It’s better now than ever, but it should probably have been declared in the fall of last year.”
Sakamoto said the hospital’s intensive care beds and general wards were full. “We cannot accept more patients at this time,” she said. “I think that many hospitals that accept Covid patients are in the same situation now.”
Japan has taken gradual steps since the end of last month, when it first detected cases of the most transmissible variant of the coronavirus that emerged in Britain. The government closed the borders to new foreign travelers, and Suga suspended subsidies for a domestic travel program after weeks of resistance.
Legally, the state of emergency announced on Thursday has no legal power to force companies to close earlier, but Suga said the government will consider amending the law to allow local authorities to penalize companies that fail to comply with official requests. . The government also said it would compensate companies that close ahead of time or follow other requests to restrict operations.
Mr. Suga weighed up these new enforcement powers while the public quickly became angry at his administration. Nearly 60% of respondents to a Nikkei and TV Tokyo poll at the end of last month said they did not approve of the government’s handling of the pandemic. Only 42% said they supported the Suga government, up from nearly three-quarters in September, when he became prime minister.
Some political analysts said that Suga and his Liberal Democratic Party were more committed to commercial interests than the general public.
“The LDP has traditionally not been a party for the average Japanese voter,” said Amy Catalinac, assistant professor of politics at New York University. “It has been the party for her various interest groups and supporters,” many in the restaurant and travel industry who would be adversely affected by requests to cut back on activities, she continued.
The time has come, say some analysts, for the government to recalibrate its priorities.
“It just shows how difficult it is to break with this mentality that they have had since last year that we will find a balance between public health and economic growth and we will keep trying to stick that needle in,” said Tobias Harris, a Japanese policy expert at Teneo Intelligence in Washington.
“It is certainly possible that Suga will be able to overcome this if the numbers start to improve, you start to distribute the vaccine, change the climate and, somehow, manage without a large-scale state of emergency or take measures that can really impact the economy, ”Mr. Harris said. “It is a very big risk.”
Some economists, however, said that since the level of infections in Japan was still much lower than in Britain, continental Europe or the United States, any restrictions would unnecessarily damage an already shaky economy.
“Sure, it’s a problem if the number of infections and deaths increases, but I don’t think the current numbers are that serious at this point,” said Taro Saito, executive researcher at the NLI Research Institute in Tokyo. “I think this is an overreaction.”
Consumption in Japan could drop 1.7 trillion yen ($ 16.5 billion) in one month under emergency conditions, according to an estimate by Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at the Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
However, Mr. Nagahama believes that the emergency declaration is necessary to reduce infections and prevent the collapse of the medical system.
As Japan enters the difficult winter months of the pandemic, relief remains a somewhat distant prospect. The country has not yet approved any of the vaccines being launched in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world. It has contracts for the purchase of doses from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca.
Still, the country has a compelling reason, in addition to saving lives, to prevent new infections from increasing: it hopes to host the 2020 Olympics postponed this summer.
The biggest targets of the state of emergency will be restaurants. With the vast majority of the public wearing masks on trains, shops and schools, experts say that a significant part of the transmissions are likely to occur during indoor meals, when people need to remove their masks to eat.
With an order to close at 8 pm, Takayuki Kojima, 56, the manager of Platinum Lamb, a grilled meat restaurant in Shimbashi, a popular Tokyo neighborhood for after-hours meetings, said the restrictions would deprive companies like his of his opening hours. most popular operating systems.
“It’s the busiest time,” said Kojima. “Honestly, I feel like we were told to stop running the business.” He said that many restaurants can go bankrupt. In addition to the restricted opening hours, he said, many of his regular customers will now be working from home.
Keiji Dobashi, 46, manager of Itamae Baru, a Japanese restaurant in Ginza, a popular shopping and nightlife district in central Tokyo, said that many sectors aligned with the restaurant business would suffer, including fish, vegetable and meat sellers, liquor stores, florists, uniform makers and even companies that manufacture the small hand towels known as oshibori, which restaurants provide to all customers before serving a meal.
But Dobasi said he was satisfied with the restrictions. “I don’t think we have any other choice,” he said. “Until the pandemic is controlled, the economy will not recover.”