Coronavirus pandemic, year two: here’s what to expect

Coronavirus pandemic, year two: here’s what to expect

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Our lives have been turned upside down, the economy is bursting and more than 1.8 million people have died – 350,000 of them in the United States, more than any other country in the world.

As a nation, we are exhausted. American hospitals and healthcare professionals are overwhelmed. Pain and trauma are building up. The vaccine is delayed, a new strain of the virus has emerged and experts fear a post-holiday explosion of new cases and hospitalizations.

The next few months are likely to be dark and painful. But there is a promise of light on the horizon. With two vaccines approved in the United States and more on the way, there is hope for a gradual return to normality – whatever that may look like in a post-pandemic world.

Here’s what to expect in this new year.

The next few months will be difficult

We have had a difficult holiday season – and things are not expected to improve at least in the coming weeks.

In December in the United States alone, we lost more than 77,000 people. It has been the most lethal month of the pandemic so far, and health officials fear the side effects of festive events will soon make things worse.

More than 1.1 million travelers jammed US airports on the Monday after Christmas. The desire to connect with loved ones after months apart can bring another wave of infections and hospitalizations – yet another setback in our long struggle to contain the virus. According to some estimates, 80,000 Americans could die in the next three weeks.
The terrible pandemic has caused physical and mental damage to many health professionals.
“The next few months are going to be terrible,” says Dr. Jonathan Reiner, professor of medicine at George Washington University. “We are going to lose 3,000, maybe more, people a day, probably until the beginning of February. And then, we should start to see some light.”

Government officials are preparing for dire scenarios. Health workers are preparing rooms for sick patients in corridors, lobbies and parking lots.

In hard-hit Southern California, the ICUs are full and the authorities have extended requests to stay at home. Atlanta hospitals are full, with some people waiting days to be hospitalized. The Georgia governor opened an overflowing coronavirus unit at a downtown convention center.

An epidemiologist in Los Angeles said the United States is now beyond waves or spikes. “This is a viral tsunami that we are experiencing now,” he says.

The vaccine has been slow to launch

First, the good news: mangoes are rolling across the country for the highly effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

About 2.8 million people received the first of two doses needed to protect themselves against the virus.

But without a federal mandate on how to administer the vaccine, it is up to the states to decide who gets the vaccines and when, creating a confusing patchwork of rules that vary across the country. The launch was difficult.

About 12.4 million doses have been distributed so far, but we fall short of the goal of vaccinating 20 million people by January 1.

A pharmacist moves 975 doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine to a freezer on December 15, 2020 in Aurora, Colorado.
Experts estimate that the ideal number would be 1 million vaccinations a day. But Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of Baylor College of Medicine, says he is not sure whether the United States can do this.

Supply constraints and logistical challenges have complicated the administration of a vaccine in the midst of a pandemic that has hit health departments across the country.

It is a delicate process. Pharmaceutical companies are expected to produce tens of millions of doses of vaccines, each with specific requirements and storage schedules.

For example, both vaccines must be stored at below freezing temperatures before being thawed in clinics and hospitals. Pfizer should be stored at minus 75 degrees Celsius – about 50 degrees cooler than any vaccine currently used in the United States. In Wisconsin, authorities had to throw away more than 500 doses of Moderna’s vaccine after a hospital pharmacist left them at room temperature.
Nurse Kristina Castro prepares a Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine on December 17, 2020, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Some states said they did not have enough supplies of the Pfizer vaccine, while the manufacturer reported millions of unclaimed doses, adding to the confusion.

New President Joe Biden has pledged to administer 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days in office. This is sufficient for 50 million doses.
Even with delays and doubts about who should get the vaccines first, the country’s leading infectious disease specialist, Anthony Fauci, is confident that the vaccine will be available to most Americans in April.

Vaccines will not protect people immediately

The availability of two vaccines by 2021 is an impressive achievement considering that we barely understood this virus a year ago. And it is a sign of hope that we are close to overcoming a plague that has brought the world to its knees.

But the vaccine process will take months and it is still important that everyone wear masks and social distance until we reach herd immunity – that magic point when so many people are inoculated that the virus has nowhere to spread.

So don’t put on your party shoes yet. For starters, vaccines do not offer instant protection and only take effect after the second dose.

A pharmacist administers a dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine to a nursing home resident in the Bronx neighborhood of New York on December 21, 2020.
Both Pfizer and Moderna require two doses 21 and 28 days apart, respectively. In tests, Moderna was 94.1% efficient two weeks after the second dose. Pfizer was 95% effective seven days or more after the second dose.

But it is not yet clear whether vaccines prevent the virus from spreading. The Pfizer vaccine, for example, is effective in preventing symptomatic and serious illnesses. But studies have not examined whether this prevents someone from carrying the coronavirus and passing it on to others. It is possible that someone gets the vaccine, but is still an asymptomatic carrier.

Then there is the question of how quickly vaccines will reach people and how quickly they will get them. Disinformation and mistrust about Covid-19 vaccines is rampant on social media, and recent research has shown that nearly a third of Americans say they will not be vaccinated.

In short, our behavior will continue to determine the path of this pandemic.

Scientists are alarmed by a new strain of virus

Health experts are racing to slow the spread of Covid-19 before more strains complicate vaccination efforts.

A new, more contagious variant of the virus circulating in the UK has recently been discovered in Colorado, California and Florida. The new strain spreads more quickly, but it does not appear to be more deadly.

It is unclear how a Colorado man was infected with the new strain because he had no known travel history. This raised concerns that the variant is spreading in the US undetected and that more cases will arise.

People wait in line at a coronavirus vaccination and testing site on December 30, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.

Pfizer and Moderna are testing their shots to determine whether they are effective against the variant.

Some scientists fear that the new variant may be able to outperform the vaccine – at least a little.

But many health officials have downplayed concerns that vaccines will not work against the new strain.

“I don’t think it will break the vaccine,” said Trevor Bedford, associate professor at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

But there is hope for collective immunity in 2021

Although vaccines and masks help to control a devastating pandemic, relief will be gradual.

Outbreaks will subside as vaccines reach most Americans, giving healthcare workers more breathing space to help the most vulnerable.

“As a nation, we will recover faster if you give the vaccine less work to do,” says Rochelle Walensky, new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
By the end of 2021, Americans hope to see some of normalcy return to their lives. Here, people attend a performance at the Civic Theater on November 27, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand.
Fauci says that April, May, June and July will be periods of hunting for vaccines. And he says the United States can return to normal life in early fall if states stick to the vaccine schedule.
Herd immunity will be achieved if about 70% to 85% of the population is vaccinated. Once we reach that limit, the spread of infections becomes much less likely.

“When we get to the beginning of autumn, we will have herd immunity good enough to be able to really return to a strong appearance of normalcy – schools, theaters, sporting events, restaurants,” said Fauci.

Imagine: Americans going to the movies, going out to listen to live music and meeting friends in restaurants without looking at everyone as a potential threat.

It feels like paradise.

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