After the recovery victory on Sunday, Steelers is in a favorable position. They are currently 12-3 and have the third seed in AFC, which means that if the season ended today, they would face the sixth seed at Heinz Field on the Wild Card Weekend.
However, with a week missing from the regular season, much can still change. In a year in which the advantage of playing at home has a much smaller role due to the lack of fans at the stadium, who plays a team is even more important than the seed they win. Pittsburgh can still take the second seed for the playoffs, and no matter where the team ends, there are five different potential opponents that the Steelers could play in the first round of the playoffs.
One stands out in this group: The Baltimore Ravens.
Baltimore is not just a division rival, but is currently in a four-game winning streak, averaging 37 points per game. In addition, they almost beat Pittsburgh without half their starting team in Week 12. The Steelers have already beaten John Harbaugh’s group twice this year, and doing so for the third time would be an impressive feat, but given the history among the two teams, Steelers should expect to play against anyone except Baltimore a week from Sunday.
To find out how likely these teams are to meet over the Wild Card weekend, we need to examine the many potential results this Sunday and see where each team is most likely to fall.
To start, let’s assume that the Ravens will beat the Bengals to win a trip to the playoffs. It is certainly possible for Cincinnati to make a comeback, but in this scenario, the Ravens can miss the playoffs altogether. While there are even more scenarios in which Ravens’ defeat leads them to travel to Heinz Field for the Wild Card, it would be the result of 5 games in total to see if it feels a certain way. Therefore, assuming that Baltimore wins and ends in 11-5, its spread depends mainly on the result of Bills vs. Dolphins. The Ravens have the tiebreaker over the Colts and the Browns, so it’s impossible for them to fall into the seeding with a win.
However, if the Dolphins lose to Buffalo, the Ravens will move to the fifth division and travel to Nashville or Indianapolis next week. But if the Dolphins win, the door will be open to a series of new possibilities.
With a win and a loss for the Bills, the Steelers could skip the Bills and take the second seed, ensuring a showdown with the Colts, Browns or Ravens (only if they lost). On the other hand, if the Steelers lost, they would remain in third place and have to face the Ravens. Basically, with wins this week from Steelers and Ravens, the two teams couldn’t face each other in the Wild Card Round. This is because either the Bills will win and the Ravens will take the fifth seed, or the Bills will lose and the Steelers will take the second seed. However, a defeat leaves them in a dangerous position, probably to play against one of the league’s hottest teams, assuming the Ravens take care of business against the Bengals.
That is why this week’s benchmark holders are a risky decision. In week 5, the Steelers dominated the Browns by a score of 38-7. There are no guarantees in the NFL, but considering how dominant the Steelers looked the last time these teams met, it seems more than likely that the Steelers could win this game if they played all their starters. But with Roethlisberger, Watt, Heyward, Pouncey and possibly more players taking the day off, the Browns are clearly favorites to win. Perhaps Mason Rudolph will make the most of his opportunity and take the Steelers to a shocking turnaround, but if we see the same version of Rudolph that we saw last year, it is more than likely that the Steelers will abandon the game, leaving them in the third seed.
In addition, announcing the decision to start at the bank earlier in the week gives Buffalo a chance to do the same. It looks like Bills is planning to roll with their starters this Sunday, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see them sit in their starters in the second half if the Steelers fall back, considering that while the Steelers lose, Buffalo will have nothing to play for. If Buffalo’s starting lineup plays a full game, they should be able to dominate Your Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, but if Buffalo puts players anywhere in the game, the Dolphins’ chances of winning will increase significantly, probably resulting in a Wild Steelers -Ravens Card matchup.
It is true that in order to succeed in the NFL, you cannot fear your opponent. Coach Mike Tomlin will certainly have that mindset, no matter who the Steelers face in the wildcard round. But if we are honest, a game against the Ravens would not be an ideal start for a possible playoff. Earlier this season, Ryan Clark explained how the best time to play with the Ravens or the Steelers is to follow the fight between them due to the physicality and intensity that is present each time they face each other. Even if the Steelers manage to beat Baltimore for the third time this season, it can leave them tired and exhausted as they enter the playoffs divisional round.
All of this does not mean that the Steelers are expected to play all of their matches this week. Considering that they never had a week of official farewell and have had little or no rest since the start of the season, it makes sense to give Ben Roethlisberger and a few other veterans a week off. However, the team must be aware of the risks involved in such a decision. They are putting the fate of their wildcard confrontation in the hands of a quarterback who fought hard last season; but again, Pittsburgh could have ended up facing the Ravens in the divisional round or the conference championship anyway. For now, all we can hope for is that this decision will not end up leaving the Steelers in a precarious position next weekend.
Do you agree with the Steelers’ decision to play some players this week against the Browns? Let us know in the comments.