The Trump administration is declassifying intelligence not yet corroborated, recently reported to President Trump, who indicates that China has offered to pay non-state actors in Afghanistan to attack American soldiers, two senior government officials told Axios.
The big picture: The disclosure of this unconfirmed intelligence comes 21 days before the end of Trump’s presidency, after he promised to increase pressure on China, and months after news indicated that the Russians had secretly offered rewards for Taliban militants to kill American troops in Afghanistan. .
- The Chinese embassy in DC did not respond to a request for comment. Trump is not believed to have discussed the matter with President Xi Jinping.
- It was not immediately clear whether any members of Congress or President-elect Joe Biden were informed, although Biden now has access to the President’s Daily Summary (PDB).
Behind the scenes: Intelligence was included in the president’s briefing on December 17, and Trump was verbally briefed on the matter by National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, officials said.
- Management officials at various agencies are currently working to corroborate initial intelligence reports.
- Axios was not able to visually inspect any reports detailing the intelligence. A summary was described over the phone by employees.
Why it matters: If this intelligence were confirmed, it would represent a dramatic strategic shift for China and would dramatically increase tensions between China and the United States. If intelligence does not prove to be accurate, it raises questions about the motivations of the sources behind it, as well as the decision to disqualify it.
- China has long played a low-key diplomatic role in Afghanistan, inviting Afghan Taliban officials to Beijing to discuss plans for a peace deal and encouraging an Afghan-led solution, although Chinese-made weapons and financing sometimes also flow into the conflict. .
- It seems “incongruous” that China is taking such provocative action in Afghanistan, said Axios Andrew Small, a senior member of the German Marshall Fund who specializes in China-Afghanistan affairs.
- The search for peace in Afghanistan is “one of the extremely rare areas in which the United States and China still want to work together in an area of importance,” said Small. “They know that the reduction is taking place. We are not in the context where anything else needs to happen to US troops in Afghanistan. There is no reason to create additional pressure on US forces. ”
Flashback: In June, White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany criticized the New York Times for publishing “unverified” claims about Russian reward intelligence.
- She suggested that “rogue intelligence officers” were undermining Trump and the security of the United States. She also insisted that Trump was not informed because intelligence was not fully verified.
Details: A senior official involved in the latest discussions in China, who described the unsubstantiated intelligence for Axios, said: “Like all early reports, we react cautiously to initial reports”, but “any intelligence reports related to the security of our forces take too seriously . “
- On December 22, officials held a meeting of the Policy Coordination Committee (PCC) to discuss the matter, said a second senior official with direct knowledge of internal discussions.
- The official said the CCP was focused on two objectives, consulting the IC on attempts to verify initial reports and consulting the intelligence and defense communities around the force protection stance for the remaining forces in Afghanistan.
The officers would not describe the source or sources of the intelligence, nor would they say when or when the activity took place.
- One said, “The US has evidence that the PRC [People’s Republic of China] it tried to finance attacks on American military personnel by Afghan non-state actors by offering financial incentives or ‘rewards’ “and said the National Security Council” is coordinating an investigation by the entire government “.
- He did not say whether he was referring to the Taliban or whether he went beyond the descriptor of “non-state actors”.
- The timing of the supposed reward offer is unclear. The source said only that it happened sometime after the end of February, when the United States struck a deal with the Taliban. He also noted that there has been no American combat death in Afghanistan since.
- He said the government had received previous intelligence on “weapons from the PRC illegally flowing into Afghanistan”.
Between the lines: The British and American governments have previously complained about the Taliban’s use of Chinese weapons.
- Interest in Afghanistan stems in part from Beijing’s desire to prevent Chinese Muslim separatist groups from using the country as a base.
- Afghan security officials recently discovered an alleged Chinese spy network operating in the country, apparently targeting Uighurs there, according to a December 25 report by the Hindustan Times.
Do not forget: Trump received a lot of criticism earlier this year, when he admitted not having approached Vladimir Putin with unconfirmed intelligence reports that Russia was offering bribes to the Taliban to kill American soldiers.
- The commander of United States forces in Afghanistan, General Frank McKenzie, said in September that “it simply has not been proven with a level of certainty that satisfies me” that Russia has offered these generosities. (This information was included in the President’s Daily Summary earlier this year, the New York Times reported for the first time).
- “We are still looking for that evidence,” McKenzie said of the reports on Russia. “I just haven’t seen it yet. But … it’s not a closed matter.”