Morocco made headlines as the last Arab country to normalize relations with Israel, after the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan. This critical action will facilitate the resumption of diplomatic relations, encourage “economic and technological” partnerships and allow direct flights between Morocco and Israel. Morocco is also the ancestral home of a million Jews, and more than 50,000 Israelis travel to Morocco each year.
But the deal comes with recognition of Morocco’s claim to sovereignty over contested Western Sahara territory, essentially endorsing Morocco’s autonomy plan as the only framework for negotiating any resolution with the Polisario Front. The decision of the United States in the struggle for Western Sahara marks a radical policy shift towards one of the region’s most intractable conflicts.
Despite fueling some discomfort within Morocco, the decision to normalize relations with Israel is widely seen as a positive move for its international position, especially in improving relations with the Gulf countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, with the additional strategic gain in recognition of its claims on Western Sahara.
Having sought the territory as part of its foreign policy for the past four decades, the monarchy considers this an important diplomatic achievement. However, the surprising endorsement of his claim will serve as a test of Morocco’s ability to order effective local administration according to its advanced regional plan. It is ironic that the plan, the cornerstone of a strong and pluralist Morocco, will confer a certain degree of autonomy on Western Sahara, even though still under its sovereignty.
The agreement follows a ceasefire that collapsed last month after Morocco sent forces to a United Nations zone to contain protests and a trade blockade. The Polisario Front, a nationalist movement supported by Algeria that sought independence and claims the territory, and the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic responded angrily to these recent events and are likely to feel trapped and justified to resume hostilities. If Algeria, where the Polisario Front has bases and camps, intervenes, there may be greater unrest.
The Western Sahara dispute was ignited in 1975 after the withdrawal from Spain, leaving Morocco, Mauritania and the Polisario Front at odds over the territory. An advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice that year recognized the ties of Morocco and Mauritania, but stated that they were not a property of Western Sahara. Instead, it favored the determination of the Sahrawis. A 1991 agreement installed a peace system that required the preservation of status until a referendum could be held, but that never happened because the two sides worked to change the demographics of the area. Morocco now controls most of the territory.
The Bou Craa mine in Western Sahara is home to one of the world’s largest reserves of phosphate, a critical ingredient in agricultural fertilizers. Its production capacity, operated by a subsidiary of a mining company owned by Morocco, is about 8 percent of the mining company’s total extraction capacity. Western Sahara also has lucrative fishing, an important sector that has grown under the control of the central government. It is also believed that there are substantial offshore oil and gas reserves that can boost the local economy. But southwestern Algeria, where the Polisario Front camps are located, is arid and desolate.
As Morocco has struggled to validate its control over Western Sahara, the United States’ decision is a major victory for the country. Despite some discomfort at home with the perceived rejection of the Palestinian cause, the national fervor over Western Sahara overshadows anxieties about an agreement with Israel and its results. The real challenge for Morocco is the integration of Western Sahara.
Is it possible for Sahrawi culture to survive in Morocco? Algeria supported the Saharawi cause. But these recent events can provide an opportunity to define a plan in which Sahrawi society can survive in the context of a pluralist Morocco. For Western Sahara to become part of Morocco, it does not need to dissolve. The real test will be for Morocco to show that it can transfer government functions and allow local administration of the territory of Western Sahara to show its identity and its people as part of a Morocco that is diverse and inclusive.
Patricia Karam is regional director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Republican Institute that works to promote democracy.