With the gas alliance tied to Turkey’s tensions, Israel moves towards energy security

In an eastern Mediterranean region full of rivalries, flexible and changing alliances, Israel has recently made strides towards achieving energy security and cementing ties with partners to create a physical link with Europe.

Israel has used energy diplomacy to help create a bloc to curb Turkish policies in the region, and last week signed agreements to strengthen a partnership with other countries seeking to contain Ankara, while also navigating other regional rivalries that could separate the forum. incipient.

The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, or EMFG, which includes Israel, Egypt, Greece, Cyprus and the Palestinian Authority and is in the process of expanding, has become a de facto consequence of a regional division, which saw Turkey and Qatar leading a pro-Islamic faction group and Egypt allying itself with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in a pro-Western camp that increasingly includes Israel.

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Turkey, once a close security partner with Israel, has taken drastic steps in the opposite direction in the past decade under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has emerged as an important critic of Israel and a supporter of the Hamas regime in Gaza.

It is also involved in a fierce rivalry with Egypt, which began almost a decade ago, when Erdogan supported the Muslim Brotherhood after the group was stripped of power in Cairo.

In the Mediterranean, Egypt aligned itself with Greece and Cyprus, Turkey’s longtime rivals, who accuse it of drilling illegally to obtain natural gas in its exclusive economic zones.

On March 8, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz signed a memorandum of understanding with his Cypriot and Greek colleagues agreeing to install the world’s longest submarine power cable, connecting its electricity grids and further solidifying their alliance .

Neither Israel nor Cyprus are connected to their neighbors’ electricity networks, and despite gas discoveries, they still rely heavily on fuel imports to burn their plants, leaving them vulnerable to cuts in supplies.

Michael Hariri, a former Israeli ambassador to Cyprus and a researcher at the Mitvim Institute, said the project was an important support for Israel in times of emergency.

“In the long run, a connection like this, from Israel to Cyprus and from Cyprus to Greece, then to Europe, is extremely significant for energy security. In fact, also for Cyprus, which like us is an island of energy ”, he said.

Israel and Cyprus also agreed on a framework to resolve a longstanding dispute over the development of the Aphrodite-Yishai gas field. Most of the camp – the Aphrodite section – is within Cyprus’ exclusive economic zone, but the part known as Yishai, which is about 10% of the camp, is in Israeli waters.

Hariri called the business “complicated” due to Turkey’s claim on the maritime border.

Turkey insists that its exclusive economic zone extends across the Mediterranean, thanks to a maritime border agreement with Libya that would essentially block Israel and Egypt’s access to Europe, potentially undermining EMFG’s plans.

A meeting on the same day also highlighted the conflicting interests embedded in the EMGF, when the PA blocked an attempt by the United Arab Emirates to join the group.

The United Arab Emirates and the Palestinian Authority have been at odds for years and have become even more distant in recent years after the Emirates signed a normalization agreement with Israel. The sides are also at odds over Mohammad Dahlan, a former Fatah strongman and rival to AP president Mahmoud Abbas, who has been in exile in the United Arab Emirates since 2011.

According to an Israeli official, member states urged the PA representative to abstain from voting on whether to allow the United Arab Emirates to join as an observer state, and expected him to do so, but instead he surprised them by vetoing the offer. .

All EMGF decisions must be ratified by consensus.

France is likely to represent the UAE’s interests in the EMGF. The two countries maintain close cooperation, including a high-level strategic dialogue. France maintains a number of military bases in the United Arab Emirates.

The EMGF approved the accession of France as a full member and the United States as an observer state.

A radical change for Turkey?

Steinitz made news last week when he mentioned during a press conference in Cyprus that Israel would be open to cooperating with Turkey on natural gas.

After years of aggressive politics and Ankara rhetoric, Erdogan has projected a markedly different tone these days. In the face of growing isolation and economic challenges, in recent months Turkey has signaled its desire to turn a new page in its relations with Israel, the EU, Greece and Egypt.

An Israeli official tried to downplay the statement in a conversation with The Times of Israel, saying that Steinitz was answering a question and that Jerusalem was always open to cooperating with Turkey if it changed its adversary stance towards Israel and its partners.

“There has always been language in the EMGF and trilateral agreements saying that this is not a closed club, and that we are willing to be open to all like-minded nations, assuming that they will act as nations with similar ideas. Which, as we all know, the Turks didn’t really do, ”explained Eran Lerman, vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

“I don’t think there is much that is hidden behind the statement,” Harari agreed.

Ankara’s statements will not be enough to get Israel and the EMGF to cooperate with Turkey in the exploration of energy in the Mediterranean. If Ankara continues to insist on maintaining a 2019 maritime border agreement with Libya that claims economic rights over areas that Greece and Cyprus see as their exclusive economic zones, the forum will continue to treat Turkey as an adversary. Greece says the Turkey-Libya agreement does not take the island of Crete into account, while Turkey has already bothered Cyprus by sending ships in search of oil and gas on the divided island.

“The final question is whether the Turks will be open to a renegotiation of [exclusive economic zone] outline agreement he made with the Sarraj government in Libya, ”said Lerman, noting Libya’s moves towards a new government and Ankara’s change in attitude.

On March 10, Libya’s parliament approved a unity government as a step towards the December national elections. The North African country has been involved in civil war since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was ousted in 2011.

Ankara will have to change its approach to natural gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean first, Lerman said. “As long as they maintain the position that Cyprus and Egypt do not have access to Europe without Turkey’s permission, we will not go anywhere.”

This result became more plausible with the election of Joe Biden as president of the United States. Biden and Erdogan have a history of personal acrimony, and many observers believe Ankara’s new tone is an attempt to protect Turkey from U.S. pressure on human rights and its policies in the region.

“The current change in Turkish foreign policy stems from the fact that there is new leadership in Washington,” said Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkish academic at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security. “Erdogan is trying to fix the fences with Joe Biden. To this end, it launched a new rapprochement not only with the United States, but also with the United States’ allies, that is, Israel and the European Union ”.

Israel’s focus on EMGF appears to be strengthening its energy cooperation with Egypt, Turkey’s biggest regional rival. In February, Steinitz and Egypt’s energy minister, Tarek el-Molla, agreed to build a gas pipeline from the Leviathan field in the eastern Mediterranean in Israel to liquefaction facilities in Egypt, with the aim of increasing exports to Europe.

Israel started pumping Leviathan gas in December 2019 and exporting to Egypt the following month. The field, discovered 130 kilometers (81 miles) west of the Mediterranean port city of Haifa in 2010, is estimated at 535 billion cubic meters (18.9 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, along with 34.1 million barrels. of condensate.

American Noble and Israeli Delek, the consortium leading the development of Leviathan and the smaller Tamar field, struck a 10-year, $ 15 billion deal last year with Egyptian Dolphinus to supply 64 billion cubic meters (2.26 trillion cubic feet).

The deal was announced when Molla visited Israel, where he also met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi, in addition to Steinitz.

Energy ministers and their teams met “to expand and increase energy cooperation,” said Molla in a video released by Steinitz’s office.

Lerman said Israel’s ultimate goal is to ensure that Egypt stays outside Turkey’s sphere of influence.

“I think the direction is to bring the Egyptians, they will have an interest of their own,” said Lerman, “and that will also make them resistant to Turkish flattery, which seems to be increasing today.”