On Friday, the New York Yankees hired free agent DJ LeMahieu and pitcher Corey Kluber in what qualified as their biggest additions this winter. LeMahieu profited from a brilliant two-year run in the striped market, signing for six years and $ 90 million. Kluber, for his part, hopes that his $ 11 million one-year pact will allow him to restart his career after losing most of the past two seasons due to an injury.
Although the Yankees have a better squad coming in over the weekend than they did a few days ago, it is obvious that Brian Cashman’s job is not over yet. With that in mind, let’s assess your competitive balance tax situation before addressing three areas of need.
The Yankees have reached an agreement with all their players eligible for arbitration, which means that we have a clearer view of their tax numbers than we would have otherwise. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Yankees are projected to have just under $ 6 million in breathing space between their current CBT number ($ 204 million) and the $ 210 million tax line.
This does not mean that Yankees can spend only $ 6 million going forward – remember, the CBT calculation is based on the average annual amount, not the total dollars spent, anyway – or that they even care about avoiding the tax. They have exceeded it frequently since its installation and it seems certain that they will do it again this year.
The question is how far the Yankees are willing to take the penalty. Teams are fined 20 percent of their surplus the first time they exceed the mark – and that would count as a first offending year for the Yankees – and an additional 12 percent if they exceed the tax line by more than $ 20 millions . There are more severe penalties for $ 40 million or more, but it seems highly unlikely that the Yankees will do that.
Hypothetically, the Yankees could spend about $ 25 million and avoid this additional surcharge. If they wanted to save about $ 10 million, for season increases and as a general fund for rainy days, that number is close to $ 15 million. The Yankees, then, could fit another Kluber-type deal into their budget with plenty of room.
What the Yankees cannot do – not without giving up their ticket to the surcharge zone – is to bring back right-handed veteran Masahiro Tanaka for a salary similar to the one he earned throughout his MLB career (more than $ 20 millions). Who can be the Yankees’ court? Let’s take a look at your options at various points, starting with the initial rotation.
1. Initial rotation
The Yankees are expected to present five initials that include Gerrit Cole, Kluber – good enough – and then some combination of Jordan Montgomery, Deivi Garcia and Domingo German, who did not shoot in 2020 while he served the rest of his suspension due to a policy violation league domestic violence.
It seems unlikely that the Yankees’ rotation go highlight these five names on Opening Day, planned or not. For example, the Yankees could point to Garcia’s age (21) and limited experience in Triple-A (40 innings) as reasons why he needs more time in minors – or, at least, in whatever form they take over in spring and summer.
Assuming the Yankees have an open rotation slot to play, they could theoretically fill it by promoting a different internal option – Michael King or Clarke Schmidt – or by bringing Luis Severino back into the fold ahead of schedule (he is now 11 months old) his recovery from Tommy John surgery, a process that tends to take more than a year). The most likely outcome, however, appears to have the Yankees making another external addition, whether through free agency or trade.
The obvious free agent candidate besides Tanaka is James Paxton, another member of recent Yankees teams. In addition to him, the Yankees could look at people like Adam Wainwright, Jake Odorizzi, Taijuan Walker, Jose Quintana or Trevor Cahill.
On the commercial front, the more realistic option is the right-handed Joe Musgrove of the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Yankees also had previous interests in Musgrove’s teammate Jameson Taillon. In addition to them, the Yankees may have to bet on someone without a great track record, like the right-handed Vincent Velasquez of the Philadelphia Phillies.
2. Bullpen
You can expect almost all competing teams to make at least one bullpen addition during the winter and before the negotiation deadline. Yankees don’t have the flexibility to do much more than that.
Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Chad Green and Luis Cessa are presumably blocks to making the list. Three spots remain if the Yankees take eight relievers: one could go to Albert Abreu, who is out of options and has to be subjected to waivers if he doesn’t join the active squad; the other two could be filled through an internal competition between Jonathan Loaisiga, Nick Nelson, Ben Heller, Brooks Kriske and other arms that are already on the list of 40 players.
If the Yankees leave the organization, they may look for an inferior option: an Anthony Bass, a Tony Watson, a Tyler Clippard or even a Yusmeiro Petit. All four pitchers were at the end of our ranking of the 60 best free agents.
3. Bank
Yankees also have some restrictions on what they can do at the bank. Reserve catcher Kyle Higashioka and outfielder Mike Tauchman have no options, suggesting that each will be on the Opening Day list as long as they are healthy. The other two vacancies belong to leftist Mike Ford and replacement for infideler Wade.
If the Yankees are going to take down Ford or Wade for the minors – and Ford, because of their limited defensive value, seems more likely to go – then the main candidate to assume that position is Miguel Andujar. Andujar has not flourished since finishing second in the vote for the 2018 Rookie of the Year Award, but has added the outer field to his defensive curriculum and can return to the Yankees’ plans with a good spring.
Another challenger for the Ford spot is outfielder Greg Allen, who the Yankees recently acquired from the San Diego Padres. Allen doesn’t offer much on the board, but he has no options, and it stands to reason that the Yankees can see him as an immediate replacement for speed and D. That secondary value could give him an advantage over Ford. (Allen’s presence also gives the Yankees some coverage if they can’t afford to bring Brett Gardner back on a low-cost one-year contract.)
As for Wade, the only real internal threat to his spot is Thairo Estrada, who showed promise in 2019. The Yankees, like most teams, like to have a spare shortstop available on the bench. This points to Wade or Estrada making the cut.
Running back in the same bullpen and bank, in general, may not be the ideal result for Yankees. But they may be willing to tolerate that reality if it is the rent they pay to maintain LeMahieu and add Kluber and another worthwhile pitcher.