Senate Democrats got a scare weeks ago. Senator Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., Is the pro tempore president of the Senate, the oldest member of the majority party and the third in line to succeed the presidency. Leahy joined the Senate in 1975 – when President Gerald Ford was in office.
Leahy presided over the inauguration of senators as jurors in the second pending impeachment trial of former President Trump. Leahy’s voice sounded weak during the session. A few hours later, I learned that Leahy, 80, was not feeling well. The Capitol’s assistant physician recommended the Vermont Chief Democrat to the hospital for some tests.
Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, DN.Y., speaks at a news conference on the passage of legislation to prevent armed violence at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2021.
(AP)
Leahy came home that night, resting. And, Leahy opened the Senate the next day.
What would the Democrats do if something happened to Leahy – or frankly, any other senator on their side?
“This is the kind of thing that keeps me up at night,” lamented a leading Democratic aide in the Senate. “I worry about a lot of things.”
Vermont has a GOP governor. Vermont Governor Phil Scott would have the right to nominate someone if, God forbid, something happen to Leahy. But in a 50-50 Senate, everything works on a day-to-day basis.
It is a 50-50 Senate. Democrats are the majority party because Vice President Harris has broken ties. But for a few days at the start of Congress, Democrats found themselves in a practical minority. And the Republicans were in the virtual majority.
Senator Mark Warner, D-Va., Was exposed to someone who tested positive for coronavirus. That meant he had to be quarantined. And with Warner out, Republicans technically had the majority. Unlike the Chamber of Deputies, there is no remote vote in the Senate.
With the absences, Democrats were prevented from even voting on a power-sharing agreement between the sides to start Congress. The Senate recognized Leahy as president pro tempore and Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, DN.Y. But operationally, Republicans still wielded the committee’s hammers until the Senate finally reached an organizational deal.
These could be a tenuous year for the Democratic majorities – if not less. As we always say in this space: it is about mathematics. It’s about math. It’s about math.
“Narrow majorities are difficult. But they are especially difficult in times of a pandemic,” said Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute. “If you lose any of your members for any period of time, you risk losing the ability to bring the majority together.”
Many progressives and liberals are complaining about Schumer to avoid obstructing the Senate. But it wouldn’t be the piece of resistance if Democrats eliminated the obstruction – and then lost the majority?
Caveat emptor.
Democrats may have zero mattresses in the Senate. However, Democrats have a little protection in the House. But it is decreasing.
The current division is 220 Democrats against 211 Republicans with four seats. As it stands now, if everyone votes, Democrats can lose only four votes on their side of the aisle and still pass a bill without the help of the Republican Party. And Republicans are getting closer and closer to narrowing the Democratic majority further. The Senate has just confirmed former MP Marcia Fudge, D-Ohio, as Secretary for Housing and Urban Development. This week, the Senate is likely to confirm Rep. Deb Haaland, DN.M., as secretary of the interior. The Democratic majority will shrink even more.
SEN. BLACKBURN, GOV. LEE: HOW BIDEN’S COVID BAILOUT DESTROYS RED STATES AND OFFERS BIG BLUE STATE PAYMENT
The late elected deputy Luke Letlow, R-La., Died of COVID-19 even before taking office. This seat is a GOP seat, hands down. The late Rep. Ron Wright, R-Texas, died last month from COVID. Democrats may have a remote chance of winning that seat in a special election.
Remember that governors are not allowed to nominate people to the Chamber. New Mexico and Ohio will have to hold special elections for the Haaland and Fudge seats. Both districts are solidly democratic. But it may take a while for Democrats to regain those seats.
“A majority that reduces us to one, two or three is not an experience we had in the Chamber,” said Ornstein. “It is clearly a moment of very significant danger. Not just for the position of spokesperson for Nancy Pelosi, but for Joe Biden’s political agenda.”
The roll call vote can rotate on a daily basis. It also raises the possibility that the House may turn in the middle of Congress – contingent on resignations or, God forbid, death. The Senate changed control of the party during a Congress. But not the house.
Still, this poses extraordinary political challenges for President Biden, Pelosi and Schumer.
Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., President pro tempore of the Senate, announces approval of the Senate version of the relief bill COVID-19 by a 50-49 Senate vote at the US Capitol in Washington, Saturday, March 6, 2021.
(Senate Television via AP)
Liberal Democrats are barking that their party has taken control of the White House, the House and the Senate. They expect major action on climate change, gun control, the minimum wage and a state for Washington, DC and Puerto Rico. But you can’t do that in such a divided House and Senate. In fact, the problem is not so much that Republicans are opposed to these measures – but that moderate democrats could get in the way.
Progressive Democrats meddle with their moderates at their own risk. Kick the curb for those intermediate Democrats, who represent unstable districts or states, and the Democratic majority will disappear.
BIDEN’S ‘OPEN FRONTIER’ POLICIES THAT ENRICH DRUG CARTELS AS A MIGRANT CRISIS SCALE: GOV. ABBOTT
Liberals did not revolt with the COVID bill. But there was concern about the decline in liberal support. That’s why Schumer made a point of immediately discussing climate change in the plenary as soon as he drafted a power-sharing agreement for the 50-50 Senate with Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky. Democrats must walk a fine line – repeatedly energizing the party’s core, without alienating moderates.
What will happen if liberals or moderates are not willing to fold? To contain the dissent, Democratic leaders may have only one option. Give an exciting speech by the football coach at the break to cheer the players up.
“You’re reduced to just a running back and a wide receiver. And you say to your team, ‘Are we going to do this or not? Are we going to come together or are we going to show the best we have? We have a huge talent. or are we going to fight among ourselves? The choice is ours and the stakes are high, ‘”said Danny Weiss, Pelosi’s former chief of staff.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APPLICATION
Pelosi is as good a vote-talker as he has ever entered the Capitol. But there are limits to your powers with such a narrow majority.
“The House is a beautiful political instrument,” said Weiss. “You can win anything by one vote, except for a suspension bill. But in a place where you can win by one vote, I think they still have enough margin to maintain power.”
And in a Congressional division like this, it can reach a single vote – on most occasions.