San Francisco Mayor London Breed said on Friday that the city could reopen soon because the coronavirus transmission rate has dropped.
Breed tweeted that San Francisco may soon begin to emerge from its state-ordered blockade because the city’s so-called reproductive rate is 0.99. The reproductive rate represents how many people an infected person can transmit the virus to.
“This means that for each person receiving COVID-19, on average, they are switching to less than one person. We are slowing the spread, ”Breed said.
“Anything less than 1, we’re doing well,” said Dr. Lee Riley, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, to the Chronicle last year. “But the speed of the reduction is certainly related to how below 1 the reproductive number is. The lower the number, the faster the epidemic will end ”.
San Francisco can only start reopening when the state gives the green light to the entire Bay Area. California guidelines say that a region can reopen when its intensive care unit’s capacity is designed to reach at least 15% availability in a four-week period. The Sacramento region was recently allowed to reopen based on these metrics.
The Bay Area’s ICU availability is currently 6.6%. Infections are falling across the region – the seven-day average for new cases in the nine counties was 49.8 per 100,000 people on January 21, compared to 60.9 per 100,000 on January 14.
San Francisco’s COVID-19 reproductive rate is below 1 at 0.99!
This means that for each person receiving COVID-19, on average, they are passing it on to less than one person. We are slowing the spread.
If this continues, we may soon begin to reopen according to CA guidelines.
– London Breed (@LondonBreed) January 22, 2021
Breed’s tweet came hours after the city opened its first of three mass vaccination sites at City College on Ocean Avenue near Interstate 280. Breed’s plan is to administer 10,000 coronavirus vaccines a day, with the goal of immunizing all eligible residents by June 30, but the city is a long way from meeting these daily targets due to a shortage of vaccines.
At a press conference at City College, officials said San Francisco expects to receive less vaccine for the city’s health care network next week than it did this week, when it nearly ran out. Public Health Director Grant Colfax said “things are going in the right direction for now” when it comes to cases.
On Friday, San Francisco had a positivity rate of 4.3% in 7 days. The city’s seven-day average of new coronavirus cases per 100,000 people dropped from 39.4 on January 14 to 30 on January 21. Currently, 234 people are hospitalized, up from 259 on January 12.
Breed added that, despite encouraging signs, San Franciscans need to remain vigilant. “But we all need to keep doing what we know that slows the spread of this virus: wear a mask, avoid indoor meetings with people you don’t live with, ventilate indoor spaces when you’re around other people, and wash your hands often,” She tweeted. “We will continue like this!”
Chronicle staff writer Trisha Thadani contributed to this report.
Jessia Flores is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] tthadani