The effort to retain Republicans who won races in difficult states came into focus on Monday, when Senator Rob Portman surprised Republicans by announcing that he will not seek a third term in Ohio. Republicans will still be favorites in Buckeye State, but they will now have to deal with a primary that already looks crowded, with a list of Republican candidates considering or already taking steps to compete.
And there is already a concern that more people will be able to join him in the race for exits, while the Republican Party is preparing to serve in the minority for the first time since 2013. Next year’s Senate map has enough decisive states for Republicans can retake the majority – but they could easily lose more seats.
So experienced Republicans hope that if anyone else is planning to leave, they will announce it soon – as Portman did this year, and not as former Maine senator Olympia Snowe did in 2012, when she retired two weeks before the deadline.
“It’s more difficult when you have vacant seats than when you have presidents, so I hope we don’t have more,” said Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), who headed his party’s campaign arm in 2010 and 2012. ” If they are going to retire, I think the right thing to do is early to give other people a chance to get in. “
Still, Johnson and other indecisive senators don’t seem to be in a hurry. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), 87, said he would speak to him “in a few months”. Senator Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), The 4th leader of the GOP, said he did not have a specific timetable for making an official decision. Missouri is a red state, and Republicans would be favored there, although Blunt narrowly won in 2016.
“I am still planning to run. But it will become official when I announce a campaign. And I’m not going to do that yet, ”said Blunt. “I haven’t really thought about it much, to tell you the truth. … I keep thinking that there will be a little breathing space, so far it’s not happening. “
Republican strategists and advisers said the concern about a wave of pensions stems from the party that unexpectedly lost a majority in Georgia earlier this month, with senators who were in office for two more years suddenly relegated to minority status, and the Capitol surrounded by a violent crowd the next day.
In addition, the Republican Party is preparing for its second impeachment trial and has just spent most of five years answering questions about Trump’s combative rhetoric, erratic political decisions and occasional attacks against members of his own party.
“After the uprising and four years of Trump, which Republican senator in 2022 didn’t think about leaving?” said TJ Petrizzo, a lobbyist and Republican donor.
For now, much of the focus is on Johnson, who new National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Rick Scott (R-Florida) has started trying to convince him to run again in the fall of last year.
Bill McCoshen, a veteran strategist for the Republican Party in Wisconsin, said Republican bases in the state expect him to seek a third term and saw some of his recent comments on the 50-50 split in the House as positive signs.
“The base wants to see him run again and they think he’s starting to pivot in that direction,” said McCoshen. “I think he understands the importance of his seat for Republicans’ hopes of winning back the majority in 2022, and the base expects him to reconsider his decision not to run.”
Other senators on the retirement list include Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), 80, who served since 1975 and has just become president pro tempore of the Senate for the second time. Leahy was hospitalized on Tuesday after feeling bad on the advice of the Senate’s attending physician, according to a statement from his office. On the Republican side, 86 years old Senator Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) Is seen as a possible retirement, although his seat is certainly republican. Shelby said he will deal with his future after the impeachment trial.
Grassley, who would be in his 90s for a potential eighth term, doesn’t understand why all the fuss is going on: “I’ve done this seven times already. It is no different than other times, ”he said on Tuesday. Grassley’s grandson, Pat Grassley, is the mayor of Iowa State House and may succeed him.
The Republican caucus in the House was also affected by a wave of retirements in 2018 that ended up contributing to the loss of the house. But with Democrats controlling only a 50-50 Senate and facing a mid-term election with a Democrat in the White House, the Republicans’ direct path back to the majority is likely to prevent a broader race for exits.
“The big change here is moving from the majority to the minority,” said Scott Reed, a veteran Republican operative and a former political strategist with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “It is not fun to be in the minority as a member of the ranking. You lose all your power. “
Reed, however, played down any concerns about the effect that pensions could have on his prospects in 2022.
“I don’t think that’s a cause for panic at all,” he said.
Chris Hartline, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, also dismissed the notion that pensions would be a problem.
“We are confident that we will have strong candidates in all of these states and they will present a clear alternative to the Democrats’ radical agenda to fundamentally change the United States,” Hartline said in a statement. “And we are confident that we will keep these chairs and win back the majority.”
In some ways, the 2022 election will be unlike any other. Trump has indicated that he will continue to play in the primaries and face the chances of those who challenged him.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was the only Republican re-election senator who voted against rejecting Trump’s second trial as unconstitutional. She reiterated that she is running for re-election on Tuesday: “How is everyone asking me that today?”
“An impeachment does not happen at a time that is convenient for people’s campaign schedules,” said Murkowski of whether his vote will hurt his prospects in Alaska. She won re-election in 2010, even after losing her primaries to a right-wing candidate and being forced to campaign in writing in the general election.
Republicans are hopeful that despite everything Trump has done to change the party, the next elections will be conventional. They are already indicating that they are going against Biden’s agenda and betting on 2022 following the precedent, with the out-of-power party making gains.
After all, the GOP only needs to choose a vacancy for the majority and has opportunities in Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire and Georgia, among others.
“I think it will be a good mandate for us because we are in the middle of a Democratic president’s mandate, which is determined to destroy the economy. I think we will have the momentum, ”said Senator Kevin Cramer (RN.D.).
Cramer said that he is not too concerned about retirement, but he admitted: “It’s easy for me to say. John Hoeven is competing in North Dakota. “