The mutant strain of coronavirus that is spreading in the UK appears to be more contagious and is likely to lead to higher levels of hospitalizations and deaths in the next year, a new study has shown.
The variant is 56% more transmissible than other strains, according to the study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. There is no clear evidence that it results in more or less serious illness.
The UK government had previously said that the mutant variant appears to be 70% more transmissible than other circulating strains. In addition, it has nearly two dozen mutations that can affect the proteins produced by the coronavirus, said Patrick Vallance, the UK’s leading scientific advisor, on December 19.
This has raised concerns that tests, treatments and vaccines that have just started to be launched may be less effective, although Europe’s health regulator said the variant is probably not different enough from the previous ones to escape the injection from Pfizer Inc. and from BioNTech SE. Countries like Australia, Denmark and Singapore have also discovered the strain.
Read more: Why the UKin Mutant Coronavirus Is Fanning Worries: QuickTake
Measures such as England’s national blockade in November are unlikely to reduce the number of reproductions – the new infections estimated in a single case – to less than 1, unless schools and universities are also closed, the report said. He also said that vaccine launches may need to be accelerated to contain their spread, at a rate of 2 million people a week, compared to the current rate of 200,000.