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Illinois and Iowa face off to a crucial game in the Big Ten semifinal, which could decide who gets the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa used a strong performance in the second half to beat Wisconsin for the third time this season. The Hawkeyes are heating up at the right time, winning eight of their last nine games on Saturday. They lost to Illinois, 80-75, at the only meeting of the regular season, so the Hawks will be out for revenge this time.
Illinois overtook Rutgers in the quarterfinals and is the hottest team in the country at the moment. The Illini have won 12 of their last 13 games, including road wins over Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin to end the season. Illinois is currently projected to be a seed in the NCAA tournament, but a bad loss to Iowa could bring Brad Underwood’s team down to a second seed.
When Iowa Hlike the ball
It is no surprise that the Hawkeyes’ attack revolves around the best big man in college basketball, Luka Garza. The senior has an average of 23.8 points per game and lost 24 points out of 10 out of 15 shots on Friday night against Wisconsin.
However, facing the biggest man in the Big Ten at 7-foot, 285-pound Kofi Cockburn will be a challenge.
The Hawks, however, can defeat teams from all areas, as they lead the Big Ten in efficiency, averaging 1.15 points for possession. They can bomb 3s with the best of them, averaging over 40% during the conference game. Iowa also dominated opponents, hitting 62.3% of its shots on the edge, according to Hoop-Math.
He hit the ball very well against Illinois in January, hitting 43% of the field and 10 out of 25 from outside the arc. The biggest difference in that game was that Iowa failed to reach the free throw line, shooting only six free throws in the entire game.
Illinois has been one of the best defensive teams in college basketball, ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, by KenPom. He defends painting at an elite level, allowing only 45.1% of the 2-point range.
So, if the Hawks are going to win this game, they will have to do it from the 2-point line and the free-throw line.
When Illinois has the ball
Illinois came back in full force in the last two games and averaged 1.15 points for possession in those games. It certainly helps when you have two of the best players in the country on the same team, Ayo Dosunmu and Cockburn, who have 38.2 points per game.
Like Iowa, Illinois can also destroy its opponents across the court. The Illini sport the No. 1 offensive within the arc, averaging more than 54% and 67.3% in Hoop-Math’s attempted rim shots.
Illinois also shoots 38% in the 3-point range, which is among the top 25 in college basketball. This caught fire in Iowa at its January meeting, shooting 43% of the depths, so Iowa is likely to have problems again at the defensive end of the ground.
The Hawkeyes really improved defensively over the second half of the season, as they allowed their opponents to score more than 70 points just twice in their last nine games.
In fact, the way to win Iowa’s defense is behind the bow, which Illinois is well equipped to do.
Analysis and choice of bets
Even though Illinois looked fantastic in the last month, I think the Hawkeyes will take revenge for the defeat in Champaign. Iowa has improved a lot since these two teams met and should be able to keep Illinois’s attack under control.
I only have Illinois projected as a favorite of -1.76, so I think there is some value in the Hawkeyes at +4.
To choose: Iowa +4 (up to +3).